中手游(00302.HK)以IP赋能为核心，形成游戏研运新生态，给予“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
IP赋能游戏效果突出， “授权+收购”储备版权超百款。IP 可为游戏引流，提供剧情、题材等支持，加快研发进程，促进版号获取。据iOS 畅销榜统计， 15~19年iOS游戏畅销榜的 IP 改编游戏数量占比呈上升趋势，19 年占比达到 60%，IP 已成为非常重要的资源。中手游围绕 IP游戏战略，与多个世界知名版权公司达成深度合作，至今累计获得39个授权 IP，包括全球顶级二次元 IP “航海王” 、 “火影忍者” 、 “龙珠” 、“SNK”等，以及国民级武侠 IP“射雕三部曲” ，双方合作稳固，从 15年至今已进行多次续签。此外，通过收购北京软星，将“仙剑、轩辕剑、大富翁”等重要版权纳入麾下，截至2020H1 自有 IP 数量达到68 个。
发行能力突出，以 IP和资本为纽带，构筑研发体系。公司游戏发行领域积累先发优势。公司将 IP 与优质CP方合理匹配，体内自研团队主要包括文脉、软星，体外与107 家研发公司有合作关系，股权投资22家公司，其中乐府互娱、寰宇九州在IP游戏研发上已有深厚的积累。目前两大游戏核心渠道腾讯与字节都将代理公司手游作品，包括腾讯代理的 CCG《妖怪名单之前世今生》 、 《真三国无双：霸》 ；字节代理的ARPG《航海王热血航线》 、CCG《全明星激斗》 。
投资建议：短期来看，公司代理游戏《新射雕群侠传》上线后稳居畅销榜前列，表现超预期；自研产品《龙城传奇》的前期测试数据良好，即将进行买量投放；与腾讯、字节合作的多款重磅产品将在 Q4 陆续上线，业绩有望加速增长。通过 IP 游戏领域优势积累，公司在竞争激烈的手游市场中左右逢源，与多家头部研发、发行商达成合作，持续扩大竞争优势，我们认为在持续的爆款产品输出后，公司以IP 为核心的研运生态将逐步得到市场认可。我们预计20~22年Non-GAAP归母净利润为 7.94/11.4/14.1 亿元，根据可比估值给予其 20 年 15xPE 估值，算得每股合理价值 5.79 港元/股，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。
风险提示：IP无法获得授权；游戏版号延期；新游戏流水不及预期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
