You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
諾誠健華-B(09969.HK):精益求精,國內小分子創新藥後起之秀,給予“審慎增持”,目標價21.49港元
格隆匯 09-10 09:16

機構:興業證券

評級:審慎增持

目標價:21.49港元

投資要點

國內小分子創新藥後起之秀,優異的管理層與研發、臨牀能力助力公司迅速發展:公司成立於 2015 年,由中國科學院院士、西湖大學校長施一公博士與前保諾科技 CEO 兼首席科學官崔霽鬆博士聯合創辦,公司致力於發現、開發和商業化同類最佳或者同類最快的用於治療癌症及自身免疫疾病的藥物。基於公司優秀的管理層隊伍,加上優異的研發能力、臨牀開發能力以及商業化能力,公司有望在未來不斷成長,成為全國領先的 Biotech 公司。

合理優化設計,打造更具競爭力的產品管線:公司在小分子激酶抑制劑領域有着很深厚的積澱,針對目前有明顯缺陷的產品,憑藉強大的藥物化學研發能力,開發出更優的“me-better”產品,從而有更強的產品競爭力。基於此策略,公司開發的 BTK抑制劑奧布替尼、泛 FGFR抑制劑 ICP-192、FGFR4抑制劑 ICP-105以及第二代泛 TRK 抑制劑均已進入臨牀階段。其中奧布替尼已經向 NMPA提交了 r/r CLL/SLL、r/r MZL兩項適應症的上市申請,有望於今年年底獲批;此外奧布替尼也在進一步擴展 DLBCL、FL以及自免領域SLE 等適應症,其 DCF 估值約為 219.27 億元。

盈利預測與估值:我們預測公司 2020-2022 年營業收入分別為 1.43、203.97和 459.86 百萬元,同比增長 15.00%、14123.08%和 125.46%;淨利潤分別為-458.15、-473.41 和-442.60 百萬元。我們對公司各管線產品進行估值,合理市值約 276.96 億港元(244.47 億元人民幣) :(1)奧布替尼有望於 2021年初獲 NMPA批准上市,2023年獲 FDA批准上市,其總 DCF 估值約為 219.27億元;(2)泛 FGFR抑制劑 ICP-192、FGFR4 抑制劑 ICP-105、第二代泛TRK 抑制劑 ICP-723分別有望於 2022、2023以及 2024 年上市,其 DCF 估值分別為 9.55、12.09 和 3.55 億元。此外公司優秀的研發能力和臨牀執行力,將保障各管線產品不斷進展兑現,我們認為公司有望迎來價值發現,給予目標價 21.49 港元,給予“審慎增持”評級。

風險提示:奧布替尼研發進度和銷售低於預期,管線產品的競爭超過預期,研發投入過大導致資金短缺。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account