崑崙能源(00135.HK)：天然氣銷售業務表現良好，靜待管道資產剝離，維持“買入”評級，目標價7.60港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.60港元
投資要點
2020年上半年核心利潤 26.25億元人民幣，同比下降 18.53%：
截至 2020年6月30 日止6 個月，公司實現收入522.54 億元人民幣，同比下降 2.41%；公司股東應占溢利23.63億元人民幣，同比下降 24.82%；若扣除應收賬款減值虧損及匯兑虧損，公司股東應占核心溢利 26.25 億元人民幣，同比下降 18.53%；基本每股盈利 27.29分。公司業績下降主要受新冠肺炎疫情和國際油價下跌影響，預期下半年公司各板塊特別是上游勘探與生產以及 LNG加工與儲運板塊將明顯改善。
上半年天然氣銷售總量同比增長 27.61%，領先行業：
上半年，公司實現天然氣銷售總量160.72億立方米，同比增加27.61%，其中零售氣量 100.18 億立方米，同比增長 20.30%。期內新增用户 28.88萬户，其中新增居民用户 28.74 萬户，新增工商業用户 1,431 户。公司預期全年天然氣零售氣量增長 15%以上，新增接駁用户不低於 70 萬户。
管道資產剝離協商中，期待溢價出售：
目前公司與國家管網就可能出售部分管道資產正進行磋商，但尚未與國家管網達成最終一致意見。參照中石油和中石化 7 月 23 日公告的資產劃轉交易代價來看，中石油各類資產評估增值率 20.56%，而中石化榆濟公司資產評估增值率為 42.84%，預期公司旗下管道資產也有望溢價劃轉，獲得的現金將有利於降低公司資產負債率，節約財務成本，並提升公司價值。管道資產出售後，公司將聚焦天然氣終端市場開發，基於公司一體化資源協同優勢，預期未來天然氣銷售業務將保持快速增長。
維持買入評級，目標價 7.60港元：
我們更新公司盈利預測並結合行業內可比公司估值情況，給予公司目標價 7.60港元，相當於2020 年和2021 年10 倍和8.5倍 PE，目標價較現價有 44%上升空間，維持買入評級。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
