瑞银胡一帆料内地下半年经济增长5.5%至6% 出口增长态势持续
瑞银财富管理亚太区投资总监及首席中国经济学家胡一帆发展报告，预期内地下半年经济按年增速将达到5.5%至6%，主要驱动因素包括消费和服务业逐步复苏、基础设施投资力度加大以及出口强韧。
随着疫情基本得到控制，以及疫苗最终将推出，该行预期消费者信心将恢复，并将在未来几个月提振服务业/消费活动。景气回暖的一个有力证明是，8月份非制造业采购经理指数(PMI)从7月的54.2跳升至55.2。这主要是受到服务业PMI走强拉动，8月份服务业PMI升至54.3，为2018年1月以来最高。酒店、国内旅游及餐饮等行业恢复正常为服务业走强作出贡献。
瑞银表示，零售销售复苏料加速追赶。7月份零售销售按年下滑1.1%，较6月的1.8%跌幅有所改善。另餐饮业营收按年降幅从6月的15.2%收窄至11%，表明在局部疫情持续得到控制之际，此前表现落後的消费领域也在逐步恢复正常。
报告称，房地产和基建带动固定资产投资增长进一步加快，固定资产投资按年增速从6月的5.4%加快至7月的6%，连续五个月提速，主要还是由房地产和基建投资拉动。
瑞银提及，出口增长复苏范围扩大。出口按年增长进一步加速至7.2%，连续五个月超出预期。瑞银预期出口增长向好态势将在未来数月延续，而且随着外需继续改善，向好势头还将扩展至其他主要的普通商品。不过，中美关系依然紧张，有可能在美国总统大选前导致中国出口波动加剧。紧张局势对於双边贸易复苏仍是一个下行风险。总体而言，该行预期下半年中国出口可望实现个位数增长，好於第二季的收缩0.1%以及第一季的收缩13.3%。
瑞银补充，内地CPI暂时上涨，PPI跌幅收窄。由於洪水导致食品供应受到干扰，7月份居民消费价格指数(CPI)按年增幅从6月的2.5%升至2.7%。政府於7月30日将防汛应急响应从II级调整至III级，这意味着洪水对部分食品供应的风险应会降低。随着洪灾影响消退且高基数效应显现，该行认为未来几个月CPI将再次回落。瑞银预测CPI全年平均值在2.5%左右(2019年为2.9%，年初迄今为3.7%)，远低於政府3.5%的目标。
与此同时，7月份生产者价格指数(PPI)按年下降2.4%，降幅连续第二个月收窄，主要是受到石油和工业相关行业的带动。鉴於低基数效应且经济持续复苏，该行预计下半年PPI降幅将继续收窄。瑞银预测全年平均值约为零(2019年为-0.3%，年初迄今为-2%)。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
