金斯瑞生物科技(01548.HK):傳統業務強勁增長,細胞治療曙光將現,維持“增持”評級,目標價24.23港元
機構:興業證券
評級:審慎增持
目標價:24.23港元
細胞治療研發投入繼續加大,非細胞治療業務增長強勁:公司2020年上半年實現營業收入1.66億美元,同比增長36.52%;歸母淨利潤-1.13億美元,虧損較去年同期增加0.86億美元。其中,生命科學研究服務收入和淨利潤增長強勁,生物製劑開發業務收入同比翻番,工業合成生物產品業務和細胞治療業務收入小幅增長。
細胞治療曙光將現,持續產出可期:公司預計今年下半年將發佈LCAR-B38MII期主要數據,並向美國FDA提交上市申請,該產品有望於明年在美國獲批。同時,公司預計於2021年向歐盟、中國和日本提交LCAR-B38M的上市申請。此外,公司還有多款CAR-T產品處於不同的研發階段,其中,用於T細胞淋巴瘤治療的LB1901有望於今年下半年在美國提交臨牀試驗申請。
非細胞治療業務持續邊際改善,向上仍有空間:(1)生命科學研究服務:受COVID-19相關產品收入增加等因素的影響,上半年生命科學研究服務的收入和利潤增長超預期,我們預計短期內公司生命科學研究服務有望繼續保持高增長。中長期來看,公司作為行業領先者,市場地位穩固,預計未來能維持20%左右的穩健增長。(2)生物製劑開發:2020年上半年公司未完成訂單同比大幅增長97.6%至7500萬美元,為未來收入的增長提供了有力保障。近年來生物藥CDMO行業持續高景氣,公司憑藉自身強大的技術平台以及不斷擴大的產能,有望在該領域取得一定的市場份額,我們認為該業務仍有較大的向上發展空間。(3)工業合成生物產品:目前該業務主要的資本投入已經完成,隨着產能利用率的不斷提高,毛利率水平近年內將快速提升。我們預計該業務板塊今年有望實現盈虧平衡,逐步成為公司第二個利潤點。
盈利預測與估值:考慮到生命科學研究服務等非細胞治療業務增長超預期,我們上調2020-2022年預測收入至3.56、4.37和7.59億美元,同比增長30.08%、22.85%和73.69%,上調幅度分別為9.2%、9.6%和33.9%;考慮到研發支出等增加,下調2020-2022年預測淨利潤至-2.84、-2.64和-0.96億美元。維持目標價24.23港元,維持“審慎增持”評級。
風險提示:LCAR-B38M研發進度和銷售低於預期,生物製劑開發業務和工業酶業務擴展不及預期,研發投入過大導致資金短缺。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.