中國重汽(03808.HK)：市佔率提升，產品結構向上，維持”買入“評級，目標價16.2港元
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
目標價：16.2港元
事件：
公司發佈中報，上半年實現營收428億，同比+24%，實現歸母淨利潤29.4億，同比增長18%。
點評：
今年以來，重卡行業表現遠超市場預期。1季度受疫情影響，行業需求受到壓制，Q1重卡銷量27萬輛，同比-16%。但2季度需求迅速回暖，Q2重卡銷量54萬輛，同比大增63%。整個上半年重卡行業銷量81萬輛，相比去年同期的66萬輛大幅增長24%，遠超市場預期。中國重汽作為行業龍頭之一，受益行業景氣。
重卡銷量增速超行業。公司上半年重卡銷量11.8萬輛，同比+27%，經營溢利22.8億，同比+17%，經營溢利率為6.4%，同比微降0.5個百分點，主要是因為研發費用、保修費用的增加和離職計劃的準備金等。公司上半年在物流重卡領域持續發力，牽引車銷量同比增長91%，遠超上半年牽引車的行業增速（+38%）。
天然氣+汕德卡，產品結構向上。今年上半年重汽天然氣重卡銷量市佔率提升，市佔率從去年上半年的第3名躍升至第1名，2.2萬輛的銷量也比去年上半年同比增長了54%，增速遠超行業。同時重汽的高端重卡——汕德卡今年以來增長迅速，1-5月銷量就超過了去年全年銷量。
輕卡及客車分部盈利能力大幅改善。公司上半年輕卡銷量8.2萬輛，同比+25%，分部實現營收68.8億元，同比+13%，經營溢利率大幅改善至5.1%，上年同期為-1.9%，主要是因為銷量上升和減值準備較上年同期大幅減少。
工程重卡有望成為下半年的主要增長動力。從6月開始，工程重卡的代表車型——重卡底盤的同比增速為95%，超過了當月半掛牽引車的同比增速（50%），目前來看，隨着基建逆週期調節繼續發力，下半年工程重卡有望繼續向好，我們預計工程重卡是下半年行業總量增長的主要來源，而重汽的產品結構更偏向於工程重卡，因此能夠受益工程重卡的景氣向上，市佔率有望提升。
投資建議：
我們預計公司20-22年歸母淨利潤分別為56.2億元、60.2億元和63.7億元，對應PE分別為9.6、8.9和8.4倍，維持20年14倍目標PE，對應目標價為31.6港元，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：宏觀經濟不及預期，市佔率提升不及預期，海外疫情影響出口超預期
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