新東方在線(01797.HK):東方優播運營進入正軌,大班戰略逐漸清晰,維持“買入”評級
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
核心觀點:
事件:新東方在線披露 2020 財年(2019/6/1~2020/5/31)年報。20財年營收 10.81 億元(YoY+17.6%);淨虧損 7.58 億元,虧損幅度明顯拉大,主要是因為 K12 業務佈局加快,東方優播體驗店快速鋪開;大班業務加快師資持續以及技術研發投入;同時營銷投入明顯增加。
東方優播運營走上正軌;大班業務不斷摸索,師資、產品、營銷推進儲備佈局。K12 業務以 K12 大班以及東方優播兩條產品線佈局,20A整體營收為 2.95 億元(YoY+85.4%),收入佔比 27.3%(YoY+10.0pct),毛利率為-15.2%(YoY-25.2pct)。大班業務疫情期間免費課學員積累流量,仍在持續轉化之中;師資儲備已接近第一梯隊;系統上使用自研的 ECCP 系統。市場投入預計在下一個財年會加大,大小班招生入口將打通,大班藉助東方優播全國體驗店入口進行差異化招生。K12大班在師資儲備、產品打磨、未來招生等方面已逐漸梳理清晰。東方優播我們預估 20 財年營收增長快速,毛利率有一定提升。截止財年末,體驗店已拓展至 172 個城市,開拓仍在持續,整體進入盈利兑現階段。
大學及機構業務穩定貢獻淨利,學前提供 K12 蓄水池。大學業務 20A實現營收 6.42 億元(YoY+1.6%),毛利率 67.9%(YoY+2.3pct),在產品精簡疊加疫情之下部分有出國計劃的學生推遲考試培訓,大學業務增速回落符合預期,預計未來將平穩增長,穩定貢獻盈利。學前業務實現營收 0.3 億元(YoY-10.1%),毛利率轉正至 28.3%,專注運營多納系列產品,未來將成為公司 K12 業務的蓄水池。
投資建議。我們預計 2021-2023 財年公司整體營收分別為 18.46、 30.94、55.07 億元,同比增速分別為 70.9%、67.6%、78.0%。歸母淨利分別為-10.06、-9.03、-5.35 億元。考慮絕對估值及相對估值,我們認為新東方在線合理價值為 46.20 港元/股,維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。K12 大班行業競爭加劇;東方優播體驗店運營不達預期。

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