中国东方教育(00667.HK)2020中报点评：疫情影响逐步减轻，重回增长轨道，维持“买入”评级
机构：国信证券
评级：买入
收入利润下滑，疫情影响逐步减轻
2020H1 实现营收 15.17 亿元（-16.8%），归母净利润 2.43 亿元（-22.4%）。毛利率 57.5%（-3.3%），净利率 16.0%（-1.1%）。销售、管理、财务费用率分别为 24.2%（+6.7%）、17.5%（+1.9%）、4.6%。收入利润受疫情冲击较大，但公司在疫情稳定后快速开展复学，目前各业务线基本恢复常态化运营。随着招生教学恢复和下半年新校投入运营，下半年业绩有望回归增长状态。
学费提升，招生结构持续改善
2020H1 年多业务线学费较 2019H1 均有所增长，体现出公司强大的课程研发能力。三年期长期招生比例持续上升，2017-2020H1 三年期学生占总平均培训人次比例分别为 19.4%、27.7%、34.5%。长期学员中三年期课程参培占比的提高增加了学员结构的稳定性，降低了招生压力和部分销售开支，对公司保持长期高质量的发展具有积极作用。
新品牌试水，横纵向扩张并举
2020H1 公司第一所美业培训学校在成都开业，该品牌价位与新华电脑接近，上半年新培训长短期合计 247 人次；与人工智能、医疗保健相关的课程也在研发中。纵向扩张方面，人口 500 万以上的城市仍将是公司主要下沉范围，预计未来三年保持每年 20 所的开校速度；成都区域中心现已完成土地收购，预计 2022 年建成。
看好公司标准化扩张能力，维持“买入”评级
公司已有业务仍将持续优化结构、释放新校招生增量；新业务拓展也已迈开脚步。在国家大力鼓励职业教育发展的大背景下，我们对公司赛道和自身核心优势长期看好。下半年开始，新老业务将有望共同助力公司业绩重新恢复增长。
考虑到疫情对公司短期招生的影响，小幅下调公司 2020FY 的收入、利润预测。维持 “买入”评级和合理估值区间 18.10~19.04 港元。
风险提示
新开校和招生不及预期；学校出现负面事件；疫情反复。
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