乾了這杯酒!茅台股價站上1800元,再創新高,接下來是誰?
作者:徐蔚
來源:上海證券報
又創新高了!今日早盤,貴州茅台高開高走,盤中大漲超3%,站上1800元大關,再創歷史新高。與此同時,食品飲料指數漲逾2%,刷新前高。

截至中午開盤後,滬指漲0.84%,報3432.88點;深證成指漲0.66%,報13942.02點;創業板指漲0.31%,報2766.19點。
白酒板塊7個交易日連漲
早盤,白酒股集體拉昇走高,酒鬼酒一度漲停,截至午間收盤,口子窖、捨得酒業、金徽酒等漲逾5%。貴州茅台股價盤中一度觸及1816元,再創歷史新高。

今年下半年以來短短兩個月,貴州茅台股價已經從1500元漲至1800元。
7月1日,貴州茅台股價突破1500元/股。7月6日,貴州茅台收盤報1600元/股,市值破2萬億元。7月7日,貴州茅台股價突破1700元/股。8月31日早盤,貴州茅台股價突破1800元/股,今年以來累計漲超50%。
近期,白酒股陸續披露半年報,貴州茅台等龍頭酒企依然實現了營收和淨利潤的穩步高增長,反映出行業分化加快以及行業集中度進一步擴大。
Choice數據顯示,目前滬深兩市共有18只白酒概念股,早盤17只白酒股上漲,板塊整體漲幅超過2%。
中信建投表示,上半年酒企清庫存控發貨,下半年加快發貨進度,疊加需求回暖,業績確定性逐季改善。由於今年上半年的低基數,白酒將會迎來4個季度的業績向好。至少從未來一年的維度看,白酒行業將維持高景氣。
消費還能上車嗎?
食品飲料行業現在還能投資嗎?已經在車上的到底要不要下來?這是很多投資者近期反覆提及的問題。
申萬宏源證券副總經理、研究總監、首席策略分析師王勝表示,從半年報披露數據來看,業績最超預期的是消費行業,大眾消費尤其突出,其次是以白酒為代表的可選消費,背後的邏輯是產業集中度提高和國產替代。
下半年以來,市場對龍頭白馬股估值較貴的討論不斷增加,那麼,這些資產為何能夠持續上漲?在王勝看來,有一個因素是:外資流入對市場影響非常深刻。
“現在A股是開放市場、全球定價,隨着外資不斷進入A股市場,估值中樞也在發生系統性變化。龍頭公司估值的提升,相當於打開了估值系統的天花板,其他股票也會補漲,整個證券市場估值中樞逐步上移。所以,貴有貴的道理,這是投資者結構發生變化的結果。”王勝表示。
接下來熱點板塊是誰?
從今日早盤走勢來看,成交量小幅增大,市場總體氛圍不錯。除了白酒股,熱點板塊全面開花。
盤面上,數字貨幣概念股開盤表現強勢,飛天誠信、科藍軟件、漢威科技等漲幅較大。券商股盤中拉昇,華安證券一度漲停,國金證券、廣發證券等漲幅靠前。軍工板塊持續走高,航天科技、航天晨光相繼封板。
資金接下來會選擇哪個方向?
中信證券預計,A股在9月將開啟一輪中期上漲,驅動上是增量資金入場而非存量資金博弈,行業層面上是全局性的,行業內分化會加劇。配置上要淡化風格切換思維,強化對順週期與高彈性品種的配置。具體建議方面,繼續聚焦3條主線:受益於弱美元、商品/能源漲價和全球經濟修復的週期板塊;受益於經濟復甦和消費回暖的可選消費品種;絕對估值低且已經相對充分消化利空因素的金融板塊。另外,可以開始配置調整已基本到位的科技龍頭。
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