白酒板塊走強 貴州茅台站上1800元大關 酒鬼酒封漲停
格隆匯8月31日丨白酒板塊持續拉昇走強,貴州茅台站上1800元大關,再創歷史新高;酒鬼酒封住漲停板,股價創新高;捨得酒業大漲超7%,金徽酒、水井坊漲超5%,口子窖、今世緣等紛紛跟漲。此外,五糧液、瀘州老窖等盤中亦創出新高。

安信證券指出,基於五點理由對中秋白酒市場表現更為樂觀:
1)高端酒龍頭茅台普飛批價十分堅挺,目前在2750-2800元一線,對整個酒業價盤穩定貢獻大;
2)渠道庫存低,批價漲,靜待旺季啟動。二季度以來主流白酒控貨挺價為主,以五糧液為例,主要是小批量發貨,價格壓力不大,一方面批價上漲,另一方面庫存進一步低位,渠道利潤提升,預計中秋打款發貨都可以樂觀;
3)二季度拉終端動銷為主,白酒中報整體中性。由於主要是去庫存(最典型力度最大的是水井坊),發貨力度較小,預判除茅五汾和今世緣外二季度營收增速轉正標的不多,但是由於去庫存堅決,三季度預判將大面積營收增長轉正,對市場情緒提振明顯;
4)中秋旺季是僅次於春節的傳統白酒消費旺季,再加上上半年延遲消費有一部分回補,中秋動銷投資行情樂觀;另外展望2021年一季度-二季度,白酒由於春季較晚且基數低將是增速優勢板塊。
5)明年估值有相對優勢,且板塊部分白馬標的隱含混改機遇(如2020年3月安徽省印發《促進安徽白酒產業高質量發展的若干意見》,涉及到國有白酒企業激勵問題),如果未來兑現對板塊貢獻十分積極。
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