牛熊异动 | 股价创新高,海底捞认购证涨50%
8月28日,海底捞(06862.HK)股价续刷新高,相关衍生品海捞摩通零九购A(23776.HK)上涨超50%。
有券商发布报告,餐饮行业持续回暖,预期公司将在下半年迎来显著反弹。随着疫情进入常态化,餐饮行业复苏趋势向好,根据国家统计局数据,7 月餐饮收入降幅比 6 月收窄4.2pct,连续四个月改善,餐饮业整体恢复已近九成。而且我们认为疫情强化了餐饮行业马太效应,行业复苏将呈现两极分化,本就有较强获客能力的头部品牌抗风险能力更强;而与其他连锁餐饮相比,海底捞这类拥有较强菜品“标签化”的品牌复苏情况将更为乐观,将在下半年迎来显著反弹。公司上半年共推出超过 91 种新菜品,并且将加强菜品研发力度,新品的推出将带动客单价持续健康向上。盈利预测与投资评级:随着疫情进入常态化,餐饮行业复苏趋势向好,公司翻台率已恢复八成,持续看好公司未来长期发展。我们预计公司 2020-2022 年净利润分别为 18.8/49.1/61.1 亿元,对应 EPS 分别为 0.36/0.93/1.15 元。当前股价对应 PE 值分别为 114/44/35 倍,维持“强烈推荐”评级。
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