中糧肉食(01610.HK)：2020H1業績靚麗，明年出欄有望達400萬頭，維持“買入”評級，目標價5.4 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：5.4 港元
投資要點
2020H1 收入增長 108.2%，基本符合預期： 2020H1，全國生豬出欄有序恢復，但供應仍然偏緊，生豬價格處於高位； 同時，國內外豬肉價差擴大，貿易機會顯現，公司進口肉業務銷量同比大 增。期內公司錄得營業收入 91.68 億元，同比增長 108.2%；實現淨利潤（生 物資產公允價值調整前）13.84 億元（去年同期為虧損 2.76 億元），EPS 0.355 元，創歷史新高；董事會宣派中期股息 0.118 港元，派息率 30%。
生豬養殖分部業績創新高，明年出欄有望達至 400 萬頭： 2020H1，公司生豬出欄量 80.1 萬頭，環比+50%；出欄均價 32.6 元/公斤， 同比+163%。實現銷售收入 27.6 億元，同比增長 52%；受益出欄量的逐季 增加，靈活的出欄策略以及有效的成本管控，公司生豬養殖的經營利潤達 17.61 億元，創歷史新高。預期下半年將延續出欄量逐季增加趨勢，有助固 定成本的攤薄，頭均利潤有望維持在較高水平。預計 2020 年末，母豬存欄 將達 25.6 萬頭，其中能繁 23 萬頭，後備 2.6 萬頭，明年出欄量達 400 萬頭。
肉類進口業務收入激增，上半年計提 2.6 億元存貨跌價損失： 在國內肉類供應偏緊的趨勢下， 上半年公司肉類進口銷量 17.5 萬噸，同比 增加 194.1%，實現收入 48.5 億元，同比增加 186.3%。由於海外疫情暫不 明朗，預期下半年海外進口量將有所下降。營業利潤方面，5 月份，考慮到 市場波動，公司對進口肉的庫存計提 2.6 億元存貨跌價損失，上半年錄得經 營虧損 1 億元。考慮到國內疫情現已得到基本控制，下游需求有明顯復甦， 下半年不排除撥備有部分衝回的可能。
維持“買入”評級，上調目標價至 5.4 港元： 公司生豬出欄量逐季回升好於預期，考慮到豬價有望維持高位，養殖成本 預期隨出欄量的增加呈下降趨勢，我們上調原盈利預測，預期 2020-2021 年 EPS 分別為 1.06/ 1.16 元（上調 36%/9.4%），相應上調目標價至 5.4 港 元，對應 2020 年 4.6 倍 PE，較現價有 36.7%的漲幅，維持“買入”評級。
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