西部水泥(02233.HK)：不派中期股息，積極尋求新機遇，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價1.73 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：1.73 港元
投資要點
公司發佈2020 年半年度業績：收益 30.087 億元(人民幣，單位下同)，同比下降 9.1%；毛利 10.476 億元，同比下降 7.4%；公司擁有人應占溢利 7.523 億元，同比下降 5.3%；基本每股盈利 13.8 分；公司不派中期股息（去年同期每股 3.6 分，派息率 25%）。
我們點評如下：
陝西市場表現一般，水泥收入同比降 10.2%，量微降 2.5%，價格跌 7.9%。陝西省水泥需求上半年下滑 6.2%，公司水泥&熟料銷量同比微降 2.5%，分區域來看，陝南市場拖累嚴重，陝南銷量下滑 19%，關中銷量升 10%，新疆銷量升 23%，貴州銷量升 9%。區域價格均有所下跌，平均售價 315 元，同比跌27 元/-7.9%，陝南同樣拖累嚴重，關中水泥價格高於陝南的情況並不常見。
噸成本下降 12 元/-5.5%至 205 元/噸，噸毛利下降 15 元至 110 元/噸，毛利率35%，同比下降 1.5ppt。其中，噸水泥的煤炭使用成本下降 12.4 元（-20%），電力成本下降 3.0 元（-9%），原材料成本上升 5 元（+5%），員工薪金下降 2.4元（-15%）。
延伸產業鏈，骨料/商混進入快速發展，收入增長 46%，佔收入比例 11%。
費用控制得當，噸三費同比小幅下降 5 元至 34 元/噸，主要來自財務費用的節約。有息債務規模雖上升，公司優化債務結構（票據貼現佔比增加）優化借款資金成本下降。
融資租賃業務繼續縮減，公司指引未來三年控制在 10 億水平，資金將致力於尋找海外業務/國內併購/產業鏈延伸/特種水泥等商機。
我們的觀點：
我們預計公司 2020-2022 年歸母淨利潤分別為 18.53、19.49 和 20.63 億元，同比增速分別為 2.8%、5.2%、5.8%，利潤增量源自骨料和商混業務的快速發展。當前股價對應 2020 年 4.3 倍，PB 估值 0.77 倍（歷史中樞 0.9 倍），若全年維持 30%的派息比例，潛在股息率 7%。不派中期股息將拖累股價表現，我們維持“審慎增持”評級和 1.73 港元目標價。
風險提示：經濟惡化、行業協同破裂、原材料價格波動、信貸風險、股權紛爭。
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