中国飞鹤(06186.HK)：飞鹤再次证明奶粉即将进入一超多强时代，给予“买入”评级
机构：华西证券
评级：买入
事件概述： 8 月 18 日，中国飞鹤发布 2020 年中期业绩，2020H1 公司实现收入 87.07 亿元，同比增长 47.8%；毛利 61.76 亿元，同比增长 55.4%；公司持有人应占利润 27.53 亿元，同比增长57.2%；每股基本盈利 0.31 元。
主要观点: 收入增量冠绝同行，净利率傲视群雄，均超预期增长 2020H1 公司实现收入 87.07 亿元，同比增长 47.8%。从增速来看，远超市场和 wind 一致预期 30%的增长，且从市场对比来看，将是头部企业中增速最快的两家奶粉企业之一。整体来看，公司增速和增量及净利率都超市场一致预期。飞鹤是国内极少可以做到的品牌+渠道双轮驱动的公司，且能够迎合当前品牌+渠道驱动的母婴时代发展，今年再次收获众多良好口碑，实力再次夯实，长期持续看好！
疫情下快速反应+强大体系和执行力保障上半年快速发展
整体来看，公司较同行更早的转变线上思路且更快加强二季度（3 月末到 4 月初）去库存工作，投放大量活动配合，推动份额快速提升，持续抢占弱势国产品牌和受供应链影响的外资品牌份额。背后核心基础还是来源于强于对手的品牌力+渠道力+执行力+活动力。
未来新产品提供增量，预计下半年环比双位数增长
回归今年下半年来看，公司指引提出下半年环比双位数增长，我们认为这将是大概率事件。飞鹤势能已起，奶粉行业将加速大鱼吃小鱼，集中度将加速提高，飞鹤即将进入奶粉一超多强时代。参考国外，未来公司依然存在享受到纯国产品牌的政策 红利，继过往吃掉渠道红利+注册制红利后的再次红利，让我 们拭目以待！盈利预测与估值 预 计 公 司 2020-2022 年实现收入 分 别 为 191.59/258.16/331.07 亿元， 分 别 同比增长+39.15%/+34.74%/ +28.24% ，归母净利润 分 别 为56.99/77.20/100.70 亿元，同比增速 分 别 为+44.85%/+35.46%/+30.44%，对应 PE 分别为 22/16/13 倍，首 次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
风险提示
新生儿人口数量持续下降的风险；食品安全风险；消费者需求转变风险；行业内竞争激烈带来的风险；新冠疫情带来的业绩风险等。
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