《业绩前瞻》券商料国寿(02628.HK)中期新业务价值升逾7% 但估计纯利倒退两成
中国人寿(02628.HK)将於下周三(26日)公布今年中期业绩，新冠疫情令内地政府实施限制社交距离措施，抑制了线下保险销售活动，但料第二季起渐见改善，本网综合10间券商预期，国寿今年上半年得新业务价值预测介乎365亿至380.3亿元人民币，较上年同期345.69亿元人民币，按年增5.6%至10%，中位数370.71亿人民币按年升7.2%，增长可领先同业。
由於2019年上半年股市强劲表现及保险税收新规带来税收返还，带来了2019年上半年较高的利润基数，同时2020年上半年股市下滑及准备金补提的压力下，本网综合4间券商预期，国寿今年上半年录纯利介乎282.17亿至311亿人民币，较上年同期375.99亿人民币，按年倒退17.3%至25%，中位数为301亿人民币按年跌20%。
【料新业务价值升 惟纯利将按年跌】
摩根大通估计国寿今年上半年纯利录295.16亿人民币将按年跌21.5%，估计中期新业务价值372.28亿人民币按年升7.7%，料首年保费收入升12%。,而该行料国寿今年第二季纯利按年升7%至124.26亿人民币。中金料国寿上半年新业务价值录367.69亿人民币按年升6.4%、估计上半年纯利按年跌25%至282.17亿人民币、料中期内含价值按年升6.4%。
摩根士丹利发表报告，内地第二季寿险销售减幅放缓，因期内社交距离规则逐步放宽，预期上半年只有国寿和人保(01339.HK)录新业务价值(VNB)按年增加，料均增8%，预料整体税前盈利平均难有明显增长，主因储备估值率的不利走向以致需要提高储备，而去年大量一次性退税的因素则令行业税後盈利会有较大下降。
瑞信发表报告预期，国寿今年上半年总保费按年增长13%，估计集团今年上半年的新业务价值料增长6.5%，第二季的增长较首季的上升8%稍为放缓，主因线下代理效率并未完全恢复。
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本网综合10间券商预期，国寿今年上半年得新业务价值预测介乎365亿至380.3亿元人民币，较上年同期345.69亿元人民币，按年增5.6%至10%，中位数370.71亿人民币按年升7.2%。
券商│今年上半年新业务价值预测(人民币)│按年变幅
大和│380.3亿元│+10%
汇丰环球研究│375.31亿元│+8.6%
美银证券│374.5亿元│8.3%
摩根大通│372.28亿元│+7.7%
花旗│371.42亿元│+7.4%
野村│370亿元│+7%
瑞信│368亿元│+6.5%
中金│367.69亿元│+6.4%
瑞银│366.43亿元│+6%
海通国际│365亿元│+5.6%
按国寿去年上半年新业务价值345.69亿元人民币计
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本网综合4间券商预期，国寿今年上半年录纯利介乎282.17亿至311亿人民币，较上年同期375.99亿人民币，按年倒退17.3%至25%，中位数为301亿人民币按年跌20%。
券商│今年上半年税後溢利预测(人民币)│按年变幅
海通国际│311亿元│-17.3%
花旗│306.84亿元│-18.4%
摩根大通│295.16亿元│-21.5%
中金│282.17亿元│-25%
按国寿去年上半年纯利375.99亿元人民币计
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