又一個低位週期板塊啟動！誰會是下一個？
作者：孫越
來源：上海證券報
今日上午，A股低開後弱勢震盪。截至午間收盤，上證綜指報收3440.71點，下跌0.30%；深證成指報收13623.06點，下跌1.05%；創業板指報收2641點，下跌2.22%。
行業板塊跌多漲少，週期板塊再度輪動，公用事業、建築材料、有色金屬等板塊領漲兩市。食品飲料、農業種植也表現活躍。
近期，券商分析師也將目光聚焦在週期股的挖掘上，市場上還有哪些是處於低位的順週期板塊呢？
電力板塊異軍突起
回顧本週行情，週期股輪動明顯，房地產、有色金屬、水泥、工程機械等都有一波上漲。
週一，大金融股集中爆發，銀行、保險、房地產等紛紛走強，帶動滬指站上3400點。週二，A股煤炭、鋼鐵、基建、有色等週期板塊領漲，銀行、非銀金融等板塊小幅回調。
週三，電力板塊扛起領漲大旗，火電板塊早盤表現較為活躍。在火電板塊中，華能國際、華電國際、華電能源等多股漲停。惠天熱電、國投電力等漲逾4%。水電板塊中，三峽水利漲超7%。
對於今日電力板塊大漲的原因，銀河證券電力行業分析師周然表示，主要是低估值疊加業績因素支撐了火電行業的表現。
周然指出，對於二季度來説，煤價下降幅度明顯，火電企業具備較高的業績彈性。展望下半年，隨着經濟回暖，用電量增速仍有保障，板塊估值處在歷史低位，估值修復可期。此外，汛期來水有望持續偏豐，優質水電資產股息率較高，防禦屬性強。
川財證券表示，全國日發電量和統調用電負荷連創新高，得益於經濟基本面的穩健快速發展，以及持續的高温天氣帶來的降温負荷拉動，電網負荷持續上升，經濟復甦的韌性和活力進一步彰顯，用電需求有望持續加大。
如何踏準輪動節奏？
從近期機構發佈的投資策略中不難發現，“順週期”一詞頻頻被點名。低估值週期板塊輪動下，誰會成為下一個有所表現的板塊？
開源證券首席策略分析師牟一凌對週期板塊的推薦順序為:
第一，經濟復甦帶動需求回暖，行業景氣將在走出淡季後逐步得到驗證:化工、建材、工程機械、有色(銅、銀、鋁)、煤炭；
第二，作為“週期之眼”的大金融板塊:房地產、保險、銀行；
第三，順週期消費：汽車、家電。
國泰君安建材鮑雁辛團隊認為，高温、雨水天氣的影響已逐漸消散。水泥、玻璃、玻纖全面進入超預期漲價窗口。下半年的旺季，因為地產以及新老基建項目的疊加，水泥量價有望大超市場預期。
此外，國泰君安鋼鐵行業首席分析師李鵬飛認為，鋼鐵板塊目前處於低預期、低估值階段，已進入重要戰略配置期。未來兩三年的需求週期可能因為地產和基建發生變化。中長期來看，鋼鐵產業格局向好，集中度提升，龍頭議價權提升，競爭格局優化。
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