國泰君安（02611.HK）：業績發展穩健，機構及個人金融板塊利潤突出
機構：中泰證券
業績穩中有升，投行、經紀業務發展值得期待
2020H1 集團總收入及其他收益達 208.48 億元，同比增長 13.81%，淨利潤 54.54 億，同比增 8.64%。增長主因：1、經紀與兩融業務優於同業，兩分部收入同比升 10.32%及 14.08%；2、投行業務持續進步，事業部制改革開始推進，年初至今 IPO 市佔率 6.5%。
機構業務穩健增長，資管和國際業務有所承壓
機構金融業務收入 97.44 億元，同比增長 28.88%，佔公司總收入及其他收入的 46.74%，為公司主要收入貢獻來源。收入上漲的主要原因在於（1）公司承銷規模快速增長、項目儲備顯著增加，上半年證券主承銷市場份額為 6.37%，較上年上升 0.86%（2）企業以發展低風險性、非方向性業務為交易投資業務目標，大力開拓大類資產避險業務及衍生品業務，新增規模 2304.8 億元，同比增長 133%（3）公司加強對固收類投資的預判和對衝，把握市場機會，取得較好回報（4）股票質押業務待購回餘額同比下降5.5%，降低投資風險。
個人金融業務收入 73.56 億元，同比增長 19.47%，為公司內第二大收入貢獻來源。收入增長主要是源於經紀業務的加快轉型和持續優化，個人金額賬户/富裕客户/高淨值客户較上年末分別+5.8%/+10.8%/+12.8%，財富管理業務轉型加速。
投資管理業務方面，總收入為 14.47億元，同比下降 26.15%，1H 股票持倉浮盈大幅改善帶動總投資收入改善，交易投資業務打造“國泰君安避險”品牌，場外衍生業務發展迅速。資管 H1 淨收入 7.2 億元，同比-16.9%，目前正穩步推動主動管理轉型，主動管理資產佔比達 62.7%，較年初增 2.5%。
國際業務方面，總收益同比下降7.74%。主要原因在於經紀和企業融資的費用及佣金收入的下降、貸款及融資收入的下降和金融產品、做市及投資收益的減少，和上年同期相比分別下降 5.2%、46.4%、7.23%和 27.02%，致使國際業務承壓下滑。
股權激勵有望激發管理效能
上半年公司設立了集團稽核審計中心，並且於同年 3 月獲得了首批並表監管試點資格。2019 年公司已連續三年在信息投入規模方面獲得全行業一位，也是唯一通過 CMMI4 等級的證券公司；公司 7 月已完成合計 1%的股票回購，擬授予董監高及其他核心骨幹人員共451 人，料股權激勵計劃能有效減少人才流失，激發管理效能。
風險提示：業務開展不及預期，市場劇烈波動風險
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