卓越教育集团(03978.HK)：疫情下积极进取，区域扩张值得期待，维持“买入”评级，目标价4.8港元
机构：国元证券
评级：买入
目标价：4.8港元
投资要点
受疫情影响，公司 2020 年上半年招生人次和营收分别为 26.0 万人和7.7 亿元，同比分别 8.2%和 11.3%：
2020H1 公司实现收入约 7.7 亿元人民币，同比减少 11.3%；毛利 2.7 亿元人民币，同比减少 23.7%；毛利率较 2019H1 的 41.4%下降 5.8 个百分点至 35.6%；实现净利润 5.3 亿元人民币，同比减少 29.6%。公司营收和净利润的下滑主要受疫情影响所致。2020H1 公司常规班招生人数为 26.0万人，较去年同期同口径招生人数 28.4 万人下降 8.2%。常规班总辅导课时数下降 12.9%，培训中心数与 19 年末持平，达到 265 家。
疫情下卓越教育逆势增加销售费用投放，引进超过 600 名优秀教师，印证其区域拓张决心。公司低价班引流效果佳。
2020H1 公司销售费用较去年同期约 6,000 万元增长至接近 9,000 万元，同比提升 50%。低价班策略成效显著，2020 上半年短期班科数比去年同期增加 123.6%，深圳地区班辅收入同比增加 14.7%。7 月复课以来，广州外区域市场招生人次同比增长 52.4%。截至目前，暑期低价班转化率30%，预计暑期结束后转化率有望恢复疫情前接近 50%的水平。
维持买入评级，维持目标价 4.8 港元：
我们对公司区域扩张保持乐观，原因是在区域性课培机构中，卓越教育的教学质量较高（80%以上续读率、接近 50%转化率），“大语文”特色显著，过往在广州直面双巨头竞争也并未展现疲态。并且，公司通过合伙人机制等措施增强激励，增加销售费用投放，重点进攻深圳市场。目前公司区域扩张已取得初步成效，期待在深圳形成口碑后加速扩张。
我们下调了公司营利预期，预计 2020/21/22 年营收分别为 17.7/24.5/29.9亿元，归母净利润分别为 0.88/1.90/2.60 亿元，对应 EPS 0.112/0.242/0.331元。目前公司现价 3.29 港元对应 2021 年 PE 12.2 倍，PB 2.6 倍，估值较低。维持目标价 4.8 港元，对应 2021E 每股收益 17.8 倍，维持买入评级。
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