萬洲國際(00288.HK)：中國業務表現亮眼，美國業務受疫情影響，維持“買入”評級，目標價 9.0 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：9.0 港元
投資要點
2020H1 業績簡述：
生豬出欄量同比下降 1.7%至 10,400 千頭，生豬屠宰量受非洲豬瘟及新冠疫 情影響，同比下降 20.6%至 22,407 千頭，肉製品銷量 1,575 千公噸，同比 下降 2.2%。期內，公司實現收入 124.81 億美元，同比增加 12.2%；經營利 潤同比增長 20.9%至 9.25 億美元；歸母淨利潤 5.5 億美元，同比上升 18.8%。
中國地區收入、盈利創新高，二季度經營局面穩中向好：
Q2 伴隨疫情得到有效控制，復工復產工作穩步進行，肉製品銷量恢復 4.3% 的正增長(Q1 -7.5%)；同時，得益於前期產品提價及高端產品佔比提升，經 營利潤同比增加 44.8%。生鮮肉業務因生豬市場供應受非洲豬瘟影響大幅 減少，生豬屠宰量鋭減 61.8%至 327.4 萬頭，經營利潤同比下降 18.4%至 1.02 億美元，而部分損失被進口豬肉的強勁增長所彌補。展望下半年，由於美 國疫情造成開工不足、勞動力短缺影響產出，預期中美貿易價差會縮小， 對進口量會產生一定影響，業務利潤會有所降低，公司正積極開發歐洲和 南美的進口渠道，儘可能保證對中國進口產品的供應。
美國加大防疫投入，業務受疫情影響較大：
由於 Q2 疫情在美國快速蔓延，肉製品消費需求疲弱；同時受到生產成本上 升、加大防疫投入（約 4 億美元）、以及餐飲服務被關停導致公司對預期 損失作出撥備等因素影響，肉製品經營利潤同比下降 45.5%；生鮮肉業務 得益於中美豬肉貿易套利空間擴大帶來的出口量提升增厚業務利潤，期內 錄得經營利潤 1.16 億美元；生豬養殖業務得益於公司積極執行的對衝策略 有效衝抵了大部分虧損。預期伴隨美國疫情得到逐步控制，下半年美國業 務有望環比改善。
維持“買入”評級，目標價 9.0 港元：
考慮到疫情的負面影響，公司加大抗疫支出，我們下調原盈利預測，預計 公司 2020/2021 年 EPS 將分別為 0.082/0.112 美元，給予 9.0 港元的目標價， 對應 2021 年 10 倍 PE，較現價有 34%的漲幅空間，維持“買入”評級。
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