滔搏(06110.HK)：經營持續回暖，數字化全渠道進程加快，維持“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
短期：經營情況持續回暖。我們預計公司終端流水錶現略好於運動行業平均水平，2-4 月流水持續改善。阿迪達斯 Q2 披露，大中華區流水 5-6 月流水雙位數增長，我們預計公司 5 月終端流水流水實現正增長，6 月流水在線上“618”搶佔流量的影響下仍有正向增長。運營層面，公司前期優質、精準的存貨管控下庫存、折扣壓力皆有所改善。
中期：數字化進程加速，推動全渠道融合。早在疫情前，公司已基於提供全方位消費體驗、加深用户洞察的目標，確立了線上線下融通的大方向，着手開發 APP、門店小程序。疫情期間公司順勢加速推進數字化應用速度：1）針對價格驅動類型消費者加強傳統電商平台運營；2）基於原有線下門店流量，運作企業微信社羣、門店小程序（優選一批優質門店專門開設獨立的小程序）、移動收銀（覆蓋 85%左右門店，疫情前我們預計為 30%左右），為消費者提供線上、線下無縫銜接的服務體驗。
長期：渠道、品牌、消費者資源共建壁壘。我們認為，公司憑藉全覆蓋強滲透的龐大直營終端網絡，前端廣觸消費者積累豐富的會員資源，後端與品牌商深度長期合作，雙向互相促進形成戰略性優勢閉環。渠道端，截至 FY2020，公司擁有直營門店 8395 家，佈局覆蓋全國近 300 個城市，後續在一、二線城市進行大店佈局的同時加密三、四線城市佈局。運營層面，公司不斷探索數字化轉型，打通線上線下，協助門店運營減負提效。品牌合作上，公司憑藉着強大的零售網絡與用户信息資源，積累了豐厚的供應商資源，與國際頂級運動品牌 Nike、Adidas 等維持着長期、深度、穩定的合作關係，目前前兩大品牌佔收入比例維持在 90%左右。
投資建議：公司作為運動鞋服下游渠道商龍頭公司，門店渠道結構持續優化，會員增長，我們預計公司 FY2021-FY2023 歸母淨利潤分別為 24.0/27.7/31.6億元，現價 9.95 港幣，對應 FY2021 PE 為 23 倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情持續的範圍及時間超過預期；終端銷售放緩；品牌商合作變化帶來的經營風險。
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