祖龍娛樂(09990.HK):王者歸來,品類多元化和海外自主發行開啟新徵程,給予“買入”評級
機構:國信證券
評級:買入
深耕行業二十餘載,爆款率優異的遊戲研發商
公司前身為祖龍工作室,成立於1997年,是國內成立最早、成功率最高的專業遊戲工作室。祖龍聚焦於遊戲研發,超過85%的公司員工是研發人員,擁有自主研發的雲端服務器架構、高度適配的先進遊戲引擎。發行方面:國內,祖龍與騰訊、紫龍遊戲等頭部發行商深度合作;國外,祖龍計劃進一步建立自己的海外發行及運營團隊。
渠道爭奪助力內容方議價力提升,國內廠商開啟大航海時代
一方面,頭條入局遊戲行業或將大幅改善第三方廠商現狀。通常,騰訊獨代發行存在兩個問題——遊戲持續性差、分成比例低。頭條與騰訊爭奪優質內容,有助於研發商獲得更好的合作條件。另一方面,全球遊戲市場空間廣闊,遊戲市場規模是中國市場的四倍,手遊市場規模是中國市場的三倍。國內遊戲正逐步攻克美日韓市場,海外市場為國內遊戲廠商打開新的增長空間。
頂級重度遊戲研發實力,國內借力騰訊,海外自主發行
品類多元和海外自主發行推動未來高增長。研發方面,公司頭部遊戲流水錶現、研發成功率以及研發人員單產都位列行業前茅。憑藉強大的研發實力,祖龍有望逐步突破多品類。發行方面,與騰訊合作更加緊密,20Q3-21Q1三款即將上線的遊戲都是與騰訊合作發行。海外業務呈現翻倍式增長,自主發行增加產品可控性,生命週期大幅延長。
風險提示
行業監管風險、遊戲延期上線風險、流量成本上行風險。
首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級
看好新品週期及海外自主發行推動,首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。我們預計歸母淨利潤5.5/9.7/13.0億元(經調整後),當前股價對應PE26.6X/15.2X/11.2X。我們持續看好公司精品化研發能力以及海外業務拓展,新品驅動下公司步入快速增長期,首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。

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