威靈控股(00382.HK)：校區儲備推動內生增長，維持“買入”評級，目標價7.70 港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.70 港元
2020 財年首三季度毛利率擴張
中彙集團 2020 財年首三季度（2019 年 9 月 – 2020 年 5 月）收入人民幣 6.1 億元，同比增長 15.4%；期內毛利率 49.1%，高於去年同期的 47.3%，也高於我們的預期。第三季度受疫情的影響，按政策要求，公司向學生退還停課期內的住宿費約人民幣1,800 萬，但公司在期內同樣也節省了部分運營開支，抵消了退費的影響。第三季度（2020 年3月-5 月）的毛利49.6%，高於半年報的48.8%。截止 5 月底，公司在校生共 35,444 名，同比增加 8%。
專升本和專科學額增長抵消本科學額下跌
2020 學年中匯的整體學額計劃 14,600 名，同比增長 14.7%，其中本科和專升本學額共 7,100 名，專科 7,500 名。今年部分廣東省監管機構收緊了學額指標，導致本科學額比2019 年減少1,048 人，但專升本和專科學額分別同比增加 100%和36.7%。專科和專升本的學額增長抵消了本科學額的下跌。在廣東省，對專升本招生人數的限制較為寬鬆，可以不完全受學額的限制，所以管理層有信心於今年專升本的實際招生人數將超過學額計劃。參照去年的招生情況，中匯的專升本學額為 900 個，實際招生 1,816 名學生。我們預計 2020/21 學年在校生總人數40,384 人。
未來三年淨利潤增長保持 20%以上，維持「買入」評級
由於今年退還住宿費，我們下調 2020 財年收入 3%；但首三季度毛利率高於預期，我們上調毛利率 1.1 個百分點，至 50.1%。2020 財年/2021 財年淨利潤分別上調 3.7%/5.7%。我們並上調目標前瞻市盈率至 20 倍，以反映預計公司未來三年淨利潤可以保持同比增長 23%-30%。我們並提升目標價至港元 7.70，維持「買入」評級。7 月17 日董事長廖榕就先生增持公司股份 49 萬股，有利於提振投資情緒。
投資風險
1） 併購學校執行風險；2）民辦教育政策風險；3）招生人數低於預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
