植耀辉: 经济前景仍具挑战 还待内地刺激政策
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，疫情继续在全球大爆发，美国疾控中心指疾情本月将达高峰，即使是非洲，过去数日多国亦出现首宗病例；相比之下，内地情况则渐见回稳，经济活动逐步恢复，最新公布之3月PMI更见强劲反弹。不过，由於PMI属环比指数，故在基数效应下才有此种现象，能否维持仍有待观察；早前公布之首两个月规模以上工业企业利润下跌38.3%，亦反映企业情况仍未许乐观。
当然，投资者理应对经济衰退阴霾有相当心理准备，但问题在於一旦疫情持续，环球经济变得一潭死水，随时衍生更多民生及政治问题，後果将可大可小。事实上，已有部分国家短暂停止个别食物出口以应对国内情况。而且，即使内地企业已陆续复工，但据知接单情况仍相当不乐观，看来关键还是下半年内地会否有更多刺激经济措施出台。
疫情之下，企业无一不艰苦经营，近期更有不少老牌食店或理发厅相继宣布结业，难免令人惋惜，但情况又岂止中小企?大型企业亦同样要面此种挑战。部分未能及时作好准备，最终亦难逃被淘汰或退场之命运。
曾几何时，利丰(00494.HK)全球供应链之角色无可取缔，《财富》杂志也曾评选为全球最佳创意以及最具有竞争力公司，哈佛商学院更将其成功经验纳入为教材。但如大部分传统企业一样，电子商贸的兴起，打破了其一直最为自豪之中间人角色地位。虽然集团积极求变，例如购入多个品牌销售权，并将业务数码化，可惜成效一直未如理想，结果近年业绩持续倒退之余，2017年更被剔出恒指成份股，市值亦由最高峰时之超过2,000亿元，跌至现时约90亿元。最新情况是大股东冯氏家族夥拍物流公司提出以每股1.25元将其私有化。虽然出手较停牌前显得「阔绰」，但股价现时仍「深潜」中，加上利丰旗下物流业务颇有卖点，未来亦肯定会伺机分拆上市。要成功私有化，如意算盘未必一定打得响。
另一间则是服装股思捷(00330.HK)。倚着欧洲特别是德国市场，思捷在2000年代风头一时无两，更利害的是尽管大股东邢李(火原)不断减持股份，但股价仍接连攀升，2002年晋身成为恒指成份股，市值最高峰超过1,700亿元。但一场金融海啸，令思捷发展受到重击，其後Fast Fashion如Zara及H&M等相继崛起，思捷更只有捱打份儿；集团亦进行多次重组以及更换管理班子，希望能将业务重拾增长，可惜一直未如理想，股价大跌兼经营状况未见起色。面对今次疫情，集团更宣布将德国6家子公司申请破产，昨日计市值亦仅得不足13亿元。
所以每逢出现重大事件，对企业而言，永远也是「危」、「机」并存。
(笔者为证监会持牌人，并未持有相关股份)~
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