《大行报告》中金料融创(01918.HK)业绩或超预期 特别是降杠杆层面
中金发表报告表示,融创中国(01918.HK)股价已从7月高位回落近13%,但该行仍看好公司发展,预计融创中国今年上半年业绩有望超预期,下半年盈利和销售增长加速、物业管理业务价值释放以及派发特别股息有望成为股价催化剂。该行相信融创於今年下半年继续执行谨慎的扩张策略,到年底净负债率能够进一步下降到140%。
该行估计融创中国上半年盈利录低个位数增长,料今年下半年至2021年将提速;该行预计融创於上半年核心净利润按年增长3%至130亿人民币,维持对其2020年核心净利润的预测(296亿人民币,按年增长10%),基於假设2019年带入的已售未结有45%至50%在今年结算(往年为50%至55%),即今年销售中有10%左右在当年结算(往年为10%至15%)。因此,该行认为全年的已售未结充裕度能够进一步提升。伴随新冠疫情对施工的压制逐步解除,该行预计公司2021年盈利能明显复苏,增速回到20%左右。
中金维持对融创中国盈利预测,「跑赢行业」评级和目标价51.16元,对应预测今年市盈率7倍,认为融创当前估值水平(今年市盈率5倍及较每股资产净值折让51%)具备吸引力,尤其是相较於业内其他蓝筹股 。
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