中彙集團(00382.HK)2020首三季報點評：業績增長迅速，各項業務平穩推進，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
量價共同驅動，業績增長符合預期
2020Q1-Q3實現營收6.09億元（+15.4%），毛利率49.1%（+1.8%）。公司四所學校在校生人數共35444人（+8.0%）。兩所國內學校平均學費均有提升；本科學校華商學院平均學費增至24324元（+11.5%），專科學校華商職業學院平均學費增至15633元（+3.9%）。國內兩所學校2020/21學年招生計劃已確定，總學額14600人（+7%）。本科統招受轉設計劃影響有所縮減；專升本和專科名額受到政策優惠大幅增加。華商學院的轉設進度有望加快，轉設成功後利潤率將進一步提升。
新校區打開內生空間，海內外協同辦學持續深化
內生方面，公司新獲得一塊土地用於建設江門新會校區，第一期土地面積約683畝，可容納超過1萬人，預計將於2021年9月投入使用。
華商學院四會校區一期將於2020年9月投入運營，可容納學生6千人。公司增城、四會和新會三個校區未來合計可容納學生8萬人。公司新增海外第三所學校——澳洲中匯學院，計劃於2021年第一季度開始招生，計劃與國內院校共同開設“3+2”、“2+2”項目等。
政策紅利加自身優勢，職業教育成新增長點
職業教育業務是中彙集團的高增長高毛利率業務，在國家鼓勵啟動“1+X”證書制度、高職院校擴招背景下，未來可能成為集團新的收入增長點。預計2020財年此版塊業務收入有望超過1350萬元（+50%），或將帶動整體毛利率有所提升。
轉設與新校區建設順利推進，維持“買入”評級
考慮到轉設完成時間有一定不確定性，我們此次暫不對公司的盈利預測和目標價進行調整。預測2020-2022年的收入分別為8.36、9.40、10.50億元。淨利潤分別為2.63、3.02、3.29億元。公司7月16日的收盤價對應的2020-2022年預測PE分別為20.28、17.65、16.20倍。給予公司6.71~7.13港元的合理估值區間，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
轉設進度不及預期；招生和擴建不及預期；政策出台不及預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
