錦欣生殖(01951.HK)：上市以來國內首個併購落地，邁出國內擴張一大步，維持“買入”評級，目標價14.4港元
機構：招商銀行
評級：買入
目標價：14.4港元
錦欣生殖宣佈以現金對價約為3.2億人民幣的代價收購武漢黃浦中西醫結合婦產醫院（以下簡稱“武漢醫院”）75%的股權。我們預計該交易會在今年7月之內完成交割。憑藉着公司成功的運營管理經驗，我們相信公司將會繼續通過併購以擴大其輻射區域。為了反映新冠疫情帶來的短暫影響，我們對FY20E/21E的淨利潤預測分別下調了21%/5%。同時，考慮到國內和海外併購帶來的長期增長前景，我們將基於DCF模型的目標價上調至14.4港元，維持買入評級。
邁出國內擴張一大步.武漢醫院是一家位於湖北省武漢市的營利性三級婦產專科醫院，同時也是湖北省內唯二的非公立、營利性、且具備IVF牌照的醫院之一。湖北省具有高達5900萬的人口，而輔助生殖市場卻十分分散。此次併購之後，錦欣將利用其在成都和深圳的成功經驗，大大提升武漢醫院的運營效率。錦欣會吸引頂尖的醫生加盟以增強武漢醫院的品牌效應和服務質量。公司還計劃向重點員工提供十分具競爭力的股權激勵方案，並已預留5%的股份用作武漢醫院的激勵用途。
武漢醫院快速增長可期。武漢醫院目前具備4,000個IVF週期每年的產能，隨後通過專項改造升級之後，產能能達到6000個週期每年以上。在2019年十月正式獲得IVF牌照之後，武漢醫院在2019年共完成了343個IVF週期。我們預期併購之後，武漢醫院的運營效率將有所提高，2021E/22E/23E的IVF週期能達到1,000/2,000/3,000個每年。同時，我們預期武漢醫院的平均售價能在2021E-2022E之間，按照每年5-10%的區間逐漸上升，主要是因為服務質量和品牌效應的提升。
通過區域併購，錦欣逐漸成為輔助生殖國際領導品牌。通過收併購，錦欣的足跡已經從成都走向了深圳、美國、老撾。此次武漢醫院的併購再一次證明了公司強大的區域併購能力。得益於公司出色的運營管理經驗、強大的技術水平、優秀的品牌效應和充足的現金流，錦欣將繼續加速其擴張速度。
維持買入評級，更新目標價14.4港元。為了反映新冠疫情帶來的短暫影響，我們對FY20E/21E的淨利潤預測分別下調了21%/5%。同時，考慮到國內和海外併購帶來的長期增長前景，我們將基於DCF模型的目標價上調至14.4港元（WACC：9.5%，永續增長率：4.0%），維持買入評級。
催化劑:併購優質資產；風險：新冠疫情的影響。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
