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建银国际料恒指下半年先低後高 上望两万八 荐腾讯、小米等十首选
阿思达克 07-03 15:10
建银国际发表今年下半年港股投资展望报告表示,上半年全球市场巨震後,不同市场和行业之间呈现两级分化,疫情反复、政策扰动及国际合作缺位或致全球经济调整期拉长并加剧市场的波动性,真正意义的经济复苏和可持续牛市仍言之尚早。该行指,港股2020年盈利预测经历快速下调後趋,截至6月29日大市今年预测盈利累计下调17.3%,预计全年会调整至按年跌15%左右。

该行表示,套息交易、中概股回归及南下资金加码有望继续为港股带来资金支持,加之经济预计逐步重启、年底疫苗有望面市,估计下半年恒指料前低後高,波动区间预计介於20,500点至28,000点,惟外围扰动或令港股波动率上升。

建银国际称,港股历次熊市反弹的极限是预测市盈率11倍左右,指港股暂时未摆脱底部区间震荡。不过,随着新经济龙头逐步纳入恒指,以及流动性推动,恒指8月份季检料开始纳入同股不同权及第二上市新经济龙头,中长期有助於改善港股结构失衡,提升盈利成长性及估值中枢上移。

该行称,中美摩擦方面,香港作为所谓的「超级连接器」是摩擦的受害者之一,之前中美贸易战仍然影响香港再出口业务,最近摩擦恶化之後也可能影响香港高科技行业;金融方面的影响暂时不大,联系汇率制度依然稳健,中美摩擦可能导致越来越多企业在香港融资,有利巩固香港金融中心地位。

该行指,在疫苗成功研发上市和全球经济走出衰退之前,成长股将继续跑赢价值股,结构性行情仍将主要集中於科技、生物医药和内需股板块。下半年随着经济陆续重启,周期股和本地股有估值修复机会,而该行十大首选股包括石药(01093.HK)、舜宇(02382.HK)、腾讯(00700.HK)、龙光集团(03380.HK)、华润啤酒(00291.HK)、阿里巴巴(09988.HK)、中国飞鹤(06186.HK)、安踏体育(02020.HK)、小米集团(01810.HK)及中教控股(00839.HK)。(wl/u)

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