《大行報告》中金:內房商上周推盤量創年內新高 H股薦融創、旭輝及潤地等
中金發表報告表示,該行監測到內地25個城市披露端午節銷售數據,25城新房成交面積按年增長11%,6月至今內地10個重點城市新推房源數按年下降10%,跌幅較5月(-20%)收窄。該行指,上周內地10個重點城市共推出98個項目,合計新推房源近2萬套,再創年內單周新高;按周增長27%(上上周+52%),按年增長276%(上上周+8%);推盤去化率上行8個百分點至71%。
中金表示,判斷下半年內房行業基本面穩中向好,政策面延續平穩溫和窗口,疊加板塊估值及倉位處歷史底部(所覆蓋內房股H股當前分別交易於今年預測市盈率6.5倍,該行看好下半年內房股的配置價值。建議投資者遵循以下三條主線選股第一是土儲具規模、增長具質量的大型龍頭,H股推薦融創(01918.HK)、旭輝(00884.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)、世茂(00813.HK)、 金茂(00817.HK)。
該行稱,第二是業務有特色、增長有韌性的區域龍頭,H股推薦龍光(03380.HK)、時代中國(01030.HK);第三是物管內涵價值突出的房企:H股建議關注融創、華潤置地、世茂、合景泰富(01813.HK)等。此外,該行持續看好物業管理板塊,推薦增長動能強且持續性強的優質公司,首推永升生活服務(01995.HK)和碧桂園服務(06098.HK),其次推薦雅生活(03319.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)和中海物業(02669.HK)。
該行估計內房行業政策溫和窗口延續,關注近期土地市場升溫趨勢及融資端政策變化,認為當前行業政策不存在大幅放寬或收緊的基礎,取態將延續平穩溫和。該行指,內地龍頭房企銷售提速,防御性強,配置價值突顯。上半年龍頭房企依托土儲、資金等優勢體現出較強的防御性,該行指在本港上市的內房股估值相當預測今年市盈率6.4倍,位於過去三年估值中樞水平;同時板塊整體倉位仍低,繼續堅定看好當前時點地產板塊的配置價值。
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