羣益證券:招商蛇口(001979.SZ)5月銷售優於行業 維持買入評級
招商蛇口(001979.SZ)今年5月銷售金額表現優於行業,5月實現簽約面積101.4萬平方米,本月同比增速轉正;實現簽約金額224.4億元人民幣(單位下同)保持正增長趨勢。
羣益證券對招商蛇口作出研究報告指出,深圳地區對該公司的貢獻佔到約20%,今年以來深圳地區房地產市場較為活躍,其銷售表現有望優於行業。公司目前在一、二線城市的土儲約佔總土儲的75%,抗風險能力較強。
招商蛇口擬向深投控發行股份、可轉債及支付現金購買南油集團24%股權。此次交易完成後,南油集團將成為其全資附屬公司,公司對前海自貿(擁有前海媽灣片區土地的合資公司)的股權佔比將由36.2%提升至41.6%。
本次交易對招商蛇口現金流和股份稀釋影響預計較小;由於前海自貿已經由公司並表,交易完成後預計增加可獲得的權益收入;此外,保險資金的加入將有助於其長效發展。公司的非市場化拿地能力強,拿地成本低,地塊區位佳,未來業績釋放潛力大。
報告稱,招商蛇口銷售情況優於行業,拿地積極。在行業競爭加劇的背景下,將著力於提升精益化管理水準、加快週轉;並通過產城、港城聯動的開發模式降低獲地成本,由此進一步降本增效、提升專案回報率。
此外,該公司還將加快物業板塊發展、建設統一資管平台、通過金融創新盤活存量資產,使得以實現可持續發展。報告預計,該公司2020和2021年淨利潤分別為176億元和204億元,對應EPS分別為2.2元和2.6元,對應目前A股PE分別為7.5倍和6.5倍,2020年PB為1.3倍,維持買入建議。

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