中國太平(00966.HK)：壽險業務低點，具備絕對估值吸引力，給予“買入-A”評級
機構：華金證券
評級：買入-A
投資要點
◆稀缺的全保險牌照央企：1）實控人中國財政部，歷史可追溯至1929年，目前業務橫跨壽/產/養老/再保險、養老醫療健康產業投資、再保險顧問及保險代理。全產業鏈經營共享保險各細分市場經營成果，2019年交叉銷售保費同比+30.6%至100.4億港幣。2）目前估值較低，主要因壽險業務近兩年表現疲軟且分紅吸引力弱，以及今年以來港股市場單邊下行。
◆壽險業務具備較大向上彈性：1）公司壽險業務近8年平均貢獻77%營收，79%淨利潤，是基石業務；其中太平人壽貢獻壽險原保費收入的96%，是核心分部，老6家之一，市場份額近5%。2）2018/19年，壽險業深度調整，2019年末公司代理人下滑25%至38.6萬人，NBVM下滑7.6pct至28.4%，壽險業務至低點。2020年公司推出“5G經理人計劃”，優質增員訴求明顯，代理人擴員需求明確，新業務向上彈性可期。2019年NBV同比下滑21%至基數較低，2020年輕裝上陣。
◆其他業務穩健發展：1）太平產險市佔2%左右，車險貢獻70%以上保費，飽受價格戰拖累。上市以來綜合成本率99.5%~99.9%，盈利能力待提高。隨着商車費改推進及非車業務開拓，改善可期。2）境外產險多點開花，盈利能力整體優於內地。太平澳門/印尼綜合成本率不足90%。3）資管以自有保險金+第三方雙輪驅動，固收佔比約80%。EV受投資收益影響高於同業，對投資收益率穩定性要求高。
◆投資建議：目前股價對應2020EP/EV0.24x（長期投資收益率5.0%、折現率11%），遠低於同業。目前總市值甚至已低於2019年末非壽險業務淨資產（壽險業務價值歸零？）。基於分部估值法並給予20%折扣，我們估算公司合理市值為711億港幣，有58%空間。即便保守地將長期投資收益率下調至4.0%，仍有44%空間。低基數+2020年增員訴求下，公司NBV改善預期增強。我們認為公司目前具有絕對估值吸引力，首次覆蓋，給予買入-A評級。
◆風險提示：代理人優質招募不及預期，長端利率下滑超預期。
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