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中遠海控(01919.HK):在低谷,等待復甦和變革,首次"增持"評級
格隆匯 06-03 08:57

機構:國泰君安

評級:增持

本報告導讀:

在行業週期和股票估值低谷,等待疫情過去、週期復甦、行業變革等推動價值迴歸。

摘要:

盈利和估值有望回升,首次覆蓋,“增持”評級。集運週期和公司估值都處於歷史低點,疫情過去、週期復甦、行業變革等都有望推動公司盈利回升、價值迴歸。我們預計 2020-22 年 EPS 0.11、0.14、0.17 元人民幣。綜合DCF估值法和可比公司PB,給予目標價2.8港元。

負面共振,熊市買點已經出現。航運長期熊市意味着長期 ROE 低,投資難度極大。只有基本面負面共振、估值反映悲觀預期,才可能出現買點。2020年集運行業處於週期低谷,上半年疫情衝擊達到高峯;中遠海控估值處於歷史低點,熊市買點已經出現。中遠海控股價上漲的概率和空間遠遠大於下跌,不確定性在於時間。

三季度需求恢復,2021年週期復甦。隨着中美貿易衝突的影響邊際減弱、疫情緩解後復產復工,預計三季度運輸需求將回升。三季度是傳統旺季,運輸需求將環比增長。國外疫情蔓延將持續影響集運需求,無論是時間還是幅度都具有很大的不確定性。但是2020-22年運力低增長,如果庫存週期上升推動需求週期復甦,集運行業有望復甦。

變革推動盈利和估值中樞上行。行業集中度提高導致運價下行風險下降,推動行業估值中樞上升。集裝箱船大型化放緩,中長期供給壓力減輕,推動行業利潤率中樞上行。中遠海控的市場份額提高帶來定價能力提升、內部變革帶來成本下降,盈利能力相對行業提高,估值中樞有望上升。集運行業的中長期回報率有望階段性達到並超過社會平均回報率,PB有望逐漸回升。

風險提示。全球經濟增速下行,全球貿易衝突再起,造船技術大幅進步,突發事件衝擊供應鏈。

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