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中國重汽(03808.HK):估值欠吸引力,給予“減持“評級,目標價15.89港元
格隆匯 05-15 15:23

機構:國泰君安

評級:減持

目標價:15.89港元

重卡行業銷售在2020年4月同比增長61.0%。我們認為增長主要是由於新型冠狀病毒疫情導致今年第1季度的需求積壓以及基建投資的焦點為緩解經濟影響,從而增加了卡車需求。我們預計旺季將推遲到5月和6月。另一方面,環保推動將刺激重卡的替換需求,而更多的國三柴油重卡將被淘汰。

我們將2020年至2022年的利潤預測分別上調4.7%/6.8%/8.1%。調整後,我們預計2020年至2022年股東利潤分別同比增長24.0%/13.3%/11.3%。由於4月份重卡的恢復好於預期,我們增加了銷量假設。另外,鑑於2020年1季度濟南卡車(951.SZ)出人意料的強勁毛利率改善,我們也提高了2020至2022年的毛利率。

由於受到一系列利好消息的影響,市場情緒明顯改善。估值飆升至很高的水平(預測估值見圖-5和圖-7),我們對此水平能被維持不抱有信心。因此,我們將投資評級下調至“減持”,因為我們預計正面因素已反映,但將目標價上調至15.89港元,相當於9.4倍2020年市盈率和8.3倍2021年市盈率,1.3倍2020年市淨率和1.2倍2021年市淨率。

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