中芯國際(00981.HK)：產能利用率維持高位，毛利率持續改善，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價19.60港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：19.60港元
投資要點
產能利用率及產品組合優化，營收與毛利率超預期，折舊金額微幅增長，股權資產下跌導致利潤下滑顯著。公司20Q1季度收入9.0億美元，環比+7.8%（指引6%~8%），同比+35.3%。產能利用率達98.5%（環比-0.3pcts），付運晶圓1,407千片（8寸當量），環比+5%，同比+29%。由於晶圓交付量增加以及產品組合改變，毛利率提升至25.8%（指引25%-27%），環比+2pct，同比+7.6pct；不計政府補貼的經營費用環比大致持平，因股票投資公允價值變動導致其他收益下滑至255萬，同比-92%。歸母淨利潤6,416萬美元，同比-27.7%。
成熟製程持續滿產，超行業水平，美國營收佔比回升。成熟製程（40nm及以上）本季度營收佔比92%，我們判斷相關製程利用率或達到103%以上，主要受益攝像頭、電源管理、指紋識別及嵌入存儲等需求強勁。20Q1美國區銷售佔比為25.5%，環比提升3.3pcts，同比降低6.8pcts。隨着國產芯片在消費電子、通信、汽車等領域崛起，以及對於份額移轉的需求增加，我們判斷公司成熟製程有望在今年持續滿產。
14nm營收佔比微幅提升，資本支出新增11億，下季指引樂觀。14nm在20Q1營收佔比1.3%，我們估算約為3kpcs12寸晶圓，產出略低於我們預期。本季度資本開支7.77億美元，環比+58%，同比+77%，公司將今年資本支出計劃由32億提升至43億美元，加速擴張先進製程產能。公司對下季指引。預計收入環比+3%~+5%，對應約為9.3億~9.5億美元；毛利率26~28%，中值環比提升1.2pcts。我們判斷，目前先進製程折舊增幅仍不顯著，未來隨着相關設備逐步計提折舊，公司毛利率將有低個位數下滑。
投資建議：公司20Q1的毛利率與費用率優於我們此前預期，我們看好公司市場份額持續提升，但後續折舊費用或影響短期盈利能力增長；我們維持對公司每股淨資產預測：20/21年為1.26/1.31美元，按20年預測淨資產的2倍PB估值，維持目標價19.60港元與“審慎增持”評級。
風險提示：先進製程擴產不及預期、外力干擾設備供應、國產化不如預期
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