澳優(01717.HK):一季度靚麗業績打消疫情影響疑慮,維持“買入”評級
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
核心觀點:
2020年業績略高於我們預期。截至2020年3月31日,公司實現營業收入1933.2百萬元同比增長27.3%;經調整後EBITDA426.7百萬元,同比增長60.7%;經調整後公司權益持有人應占利潤298.6百萬元,同比增長53.5%。
2020年一季度,澳優乳業自家品牌羊奶粉實現收入938百萬元,同比增長37.3%,自家牛奶粉實現營業收入771.9百萬元,同比增長36.2%。公司營養品營業收入30.2百萬元,同比增長65.9%。私人品牌及其他產品實現銷售收入193.1百萬元,同比減少23.1%。公司自家品牌奶粉收入增長為業績提升主要動力,銷售增長主要得益於公司加強營銷網絡和品牌推廣,特別是在冠狀病毒爆發期間,公司快速應變,積極採取應對措施,一方面梳理供應鏈,另一方面增強產品組合保證市場供應。
預計2020-2022年業績分別為0.76、0.88、1元/股。2020年對於新型冠狀病毒的疫情,由於公司採取了積極應對策略,預計只對向消費者運送貨物物流產生少量影響,主營業務收入預計沒有影響。預計隨着公司產能繼續提升,藉助公司不斷增強的銷售網絡,預計公司收入增長持續;公司2020-2022年EPS分別為0.76、0.89和1元/股,當前價格對應2020-2022年PE為19.3、16.64和14.69倍;未來兩年公司營業收入增長穩定,考慮公司羊奶粉市場龍頭地位,我們給予公司2020年21倍PE,對應合理價值為17.57港元/股,維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。原原材料價格波動風險;核心產品系列銷售大幅下滑;食品安全問題。注:本文除特別説明外,均使用人民幣為貨幣幣種。

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