宇華教育(06169.HK)2020中報點評：內生和投後管理超預期，龍頭溢價初顯，維持“買入”評級，目標價8.00—9.56港元
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
目標價：8.00—9.56港元
業績靚麗，超出預期
宇華教育2020H1實現收入12.60億元（+57.4%）；調整後毛利潤7.63億元（+58.9%）；調整後的歸母淨利潤5.67億元（+49.6%）。三項費用率共計17.8%（+1.4%）。截至2020年2月29日，公司在校生人數13.82萬人，較2019年末增長39.9%。公司收入和調整後淨利潤均超出我們和市場此前預期，特別是K12部分內生增速表現優異。
高質量資產和出色投後整合優勢顯著
公司目前擁有29所學校，包括4所大學、5所高中和20所K9學校。學生人數看，非K9階段人數佔86%；從收入結構看，非K9階段收入佔84%。截至目前，公司三所國內大學均名列中國民辦大學排行榜前十一位、各自所在省民辦大學排行榜第一位。山東英才學院整合僅半年時間，貢獻7500萬元淨利潤；斯坦福國際學院扭虧為盈。
負債率大幅優化，在手現金充足
截至2020年2月29日，公司有息負債規模約3.02億元（-40.8%），較2019FY減少12.70億元，有息資產負債率3.3%（-3.6%）。公司現金及現金等價物15.78億元（+37.2%），經營性現金流4.95億元（+58.1%）。優化的負債率和充足的現金流將助力公司進一步擴張。
上調盈利預測和合理估值區間，維持“買入”評級
考慮到山東英才和斯坦福國際學校整合效果良好，且內生增長超預期，小幅上調對公司的盈利預測。我們預測公司2020-2022年的收入為24.00、25.92、27.48億元；淨利潤上調至9.57、10.53、10.78億元。
公司5月5日的收盤價7.71港元對應的2020-2022年預測PE分別為24.53、22.29、21.79倍。我們認為公司的管理層能力進一步得到市場認可，開始出現較可比公司的溢價。維持對公司的“買入”評級，將合理估值區間由6.25~6.41港元上調至8.00~9.56港元。
風險提示
併購進度不及預期；公司運營出現較嚴重的負面事件；政策不及預期。
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