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海螺水泥(00914.HK):水泥高價地域龍頭,成本優勢凸顯,首次評級為“買入”,目標價71.25港元
格隆匯 04-29 09:48

機構:國元證券

評級:買入

目標價:71.25港元

投資要點

佈局水泥相對高價地域,資源優勢凸顯:

行業供需格局已顯現區域結構性改善,公司領跑佈局華東、中南等水泥高價利潤區,2020年4月24日華東與中南水泥價格指數分別為161.85/160.14,均明顯高於全國水泥價格指數145.91。2019年東部、中部及南部區域成為公司主要收入貢獻地區,合計銷量佔自產水泥熟料總銷量74.2%。

海螺T型系統集成,噸水泥成本優勢明顯:

海螺的“T型系統”把水泥生產於長三角地區分割為“橫”“豎”兩部分,一方面長江水路可有效分攤庫存壓力並形成鐵水聯運全面覆蓋市場,另一方面水路運輸的成本約為公路運輸的25%,使海螺水泥的成本優勢較普通企業突出。受益於產能規模與生產模式,2019年海螺水泥自產品綜合噸成本為179元/噸,而我們統計其他港股上市水泥企業綜合噸成本約為193-199元/噸。

政策驅動骨料產業整合,海螺骨料毛利躍進增長:

公司擁有優質礦山資源儲備超100億噸,我們採用現金流折現法測算,假設骨料開採量達3億噸每年,骨料砂石銷售價格50元/噸,折現率為10%,海螺水泥礦山資源價值超1,570億元。截至2019年底,公司骨料產能5,530萬噸,骨料業務毛利率達70.6%,隨着新項目產能釋放,公司骨料業務毛利或將保持躍進增長,將優先於礦山供給結構改革中佔據集團式生產優勢。

首次覆蓋給予買入評級,目標價71.25港元:

我們預計公司FY2020-2022年EPS分別為6.51/6.70/6.98元,當前股價對應PE為8.17/7.94/7.62倍。根據港股水泥上市公司平均估值,我們給予公司2020年10倍目標PE,對應目標價為71.25港元,較現價有22.4%的上漲空間,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。

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