《大行报告》广发证券料疫情对阿里巴巴(09988.HK)带来短期业绩压力 维持「买入」评级
广发证券发表报告表示,料新冠疫情对内地电商主业的影响已逐步消退,但2021财年首财季(截至2020年6月底止季度)对多项业务造成了一定增长压力,预计在2020财年第四财季(截至2020年3月底止季度)阿里整体收入按年增长13%至1,052亿人民币,其中核心商业增长9%至863亿人民币。
据国统局数据,今年首季全国实物商品网上零售额按年增长5.9%,增速受疫情影响较为明显。由於消费情绪低迷、宏观环境的不确定因素较多,商家的信心受到影响,广告投放有所减少。该行预计佣金和客户管理收入(CMR)按年下滑8%,佣金收入受交易量下降影响,按年将下滑5%。
广发证券指,新冠疫情对公司业绩造成了一次性冲击;但更多线下品牌寻求线上解决方案、消费需求向电商转移,反而提高电商渗透率,又带来淘宝直播、盒马、钉钉等新业务的机遇。预计其2020财年至2022财年阿里巴巴收入分别为5,006亿、6,692亿及8,382亿人民币,对应增长各为32.8%、33.7%及25.3%增长,料非通用会计准则纯利预测分别为1,352亿、1,628亿及2,056亿人民币,对应增长34.1%、20.4%及26.3%,维持其港股合理价值228.93港元,维持「买入」评级。
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