《季績前瞻》券商料國壽(02628.HK)首季新業務價值增長勝同業 但摩通估純利將跌56%
中國人壽(02628.HK)將於本周四(23日)公布今年首季業績,摩根大通報告預測,受中國十年期國債孳息率下滑(至2.56厘,按年跌82個基點)及信貸風險上升,潛在需為調整準備金,料內險股今年首季業績走弱,該行料國壽首季淨利潤按年倒退56%至115億元人民幣。該行指出,考慮到其季內保費增長放緩,將其2020年至2022年的毛承保保費總額預測各下調-4%、-6%及-8%。
摩通今日再發表報告,列出投資者對國壽公布首業業績時的關注點,第一是股票投資,公司去年旗下股票投資佔總資產規模11%,該行推算股票投資若每下跌10%,將拖低國壽盈利預測約10%,關注管理層就股票投資影響的最新指引;第二是債息下滑之下公司的責任準備金、剩餘邊際情況,倘若中國十年期國債孳息率今年維持約2.5%水平,準備金折現率將下跌52個基點,該行估計折現率跌50個基點將拖低內險股的盈利;第三是保險經理情況、第四是廣發銀行,未來是否需就內銀股本融資作出準備。
【新業務價值 料可勝同業】
不過,券商對國壽首季淨利潤頗為參差。建銀國際近日發表報告表示,預測國壽因投資收益減弱,首季淨利潤按年倒退7%至241億元人民幣,估計期內營運收入3,250億人民幣按年升4%,估計期內投資收益350億人民幣按年下滑10%。而交銀國際預計,國壽首季新業務價值增速有望好於同業,由於公司「開門紅」產品啟動料早,料開門紅保費表現較為強勁。瑞信更料國壽首季新業務價值可錄正增長6%,明顯跑贏同業同期雙位數字的跌幅。美銀證券估計國壽首季新業務價值可按年升12至14%,雖然受到疫情影響,但可優於同業。
下表列出17間券商對其評級及目標價(港元):
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
摩根大通│增持│33元
花旗│買入│27.5元
瑞信│跑贏大市│27元
華泰金控│買入│26元
招商證券國際│買入│25.2元
高盛│買入│24元
法巴│買入│24元
大和│買入│24元
美銀證券│買入│23.5元
交銀國際│買入│21元
建銀國際│跑贏大市│21元
野村│買入│20.24元
里昂│買入│20元
工銀國際│買入│19.7元
匯豐環球研究│持有│17.3元
摩根士丹利│與大市同步│15元
瑞銀│中性│12.9元
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