《大行報告》瑞銀下調內地燃氣股目標價 今年需求弱降盈測
瑞銀發表的研究報告,將內地燃氣股目標價下調14%,維持對新奧能源(02688.HK)及中國燃氣(00384.HK)「買入」評級,認為可受惠需求潛在復甦及估值吸引,華潤燃氣(01193.HK)評級則降至「中性」,認為其估值較高。該行將燃氣股2020-22年的盈利預測下調10-17%,以反映受疫情影響經濟活動減慢及需求減弱;該行亦將2020年燃氣銷量增長預測降至7%,並料2021年增長將復甦至19%。該行估計2020及21年燃氣行業平均盈利增長將為7%及24%,相信對預期2021年燃氣需求復甦的投資者來說估值吸引,對行業中長期增長前景看法正面。
該行的基本情景顯示,2020年燃氣需求將在下半年復甦至正常水平,而今年首季燃氣銷量按年跌10-15%,而次季大致平穩,下半年增長則為15-25%。該行估計新奧、潤燃及中燃今年的燃氣銷量將分別增7%、5%及25%,並料中燃銷量增長將快於同業,主要因為其財年於3月底結束,加上今年首季基數較低,另外公司亦可受惠俄羅斯燃氣及「煤轉氣」的帶動。
在派息前景方面,新奧能源及華潤燃氣均維持正面的2020年派息指引,該行料新奧、潤燃及中燃每股派息將分別增18%、7%及37%。該行相信中燃有最好的風險回報組合,估計其2021-23年盈利年複合增長可達18%,而今年以來其股價跑輸同業約10%,維持「買入」評級,目標價由44元降至38.5元,仍然是首選股;而新奧能源評級亦維持「買入」,目標價由115元降至97.5元;潤燃評級則由「買入」降至「中性」,目標價由50.5元降至44元。(el/u)
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