中國奧園(03883.HK):2019年業績符合預期,維持“買入“評級,目標價13.68港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:買入
目標價:13.68港元
2019年合約銷售目標達成且2020年銷售目標被進一步提升。2019年合約銷售同比增長29.3%至人民幣1,180.6億元,相當於公司2019年全年銷售目標的103.5%。公司決定進一步提升其2020年合約銷售目標至約人民幣1,320億元,而2020年目標去化率約為60.0%。
大量的土地儲備與較低的單位土地成本將支撐公司的業務擴張。截至2019年12月31日,公司土儲總建面達到約4,503萬平米(權益比率:79%),單位土地成本為每平米人民幣2,536元,僅相當於公司2019年銷售均價的25.1%。大灣區土儲佔到了總土儲建面的18.4%。?2019年股東淨利同比上升74.4%至人民幣42.01億元,符合我們的預期。公司2019年收入同比上升63.0%至人民幣505.31億元,主要受交付項目的銷售均價與建築面積的共同推動。我們預計2020至2022年核心淨利將分別達到人民幣59.02億元、人民幣70.97億元和人民幣82.45億元。
公司受益於2016-2019年強勁的合約銷售增長,已經累積了人民幣1,705億元的已售未結收入。這些未結轉收入預計將於未來兩年內結轉,顯示了較為穩健的增長預期。我們下調公司目標價至13.68港元,相較於公司2020年每股估值32.39港元有57.8%的折讓,也分別相當於5.5倍2020年核心市盈率及1.7倍2020年市淨率。維持“買入”投資評級。
風險因素:低於預期的合約銷售,海外項目和舊改項目存在不確定性。

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