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星展銀行(香港)丘卓文料今年零售租金跌幅兩成至兩成半
阿思達克 04-03 12:54
星展銀行(香港)香港房地產業分析師丘卓文在電話會議上表示,香港社會運動的影響未消退加上疫情爆發,令本港零售業受到重重打擊,而疫情的因素更是超出社會運動所帶來的影響,原本未有受累的中式酒樓、餐飲業及補習社等都因為防控疫情的需要已有影響,令社區商場的業務都因而受到波及。

他預料,及至第二季底商場的空置率將會升至高單位數。即使地產商推出租金紓緩措施亦有機會於事無補,因為某些零售行業,例如酒樓的租金成本佔比不高,若沒有生意的話,即使減租一半都難以維持生計。由於前景具不確定因素,因此零售商在續租時都不會願意簽三年租約,而是尋求短租。因此,可以預期發展商的租金收入會有一至兩成跌幅。今年的零售租金跌幅料達兩成至兩成半,黃金地段的街舖跌幅或更深。

在選股方面,他認為房託的表現在目前低息環境會較好,看好業務穩定的房託股,例如領展(00823.HK)、置富(00778.HK)及陽光房地產基金(00435.HK)。收租股則看好恆隆地產(00101.HK),因為其在中國內地的覆蓋較多,而中國的復甦速度料較快。地產發展股則看好新地(00016.HK),雖然疫情對其物業銷售及商場均有影響,但其估值現時有六成折讓。

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