《大行報告》摩通升中石化及中石油目標價 料中石化今年盈利可跑贏同業
摩根大通發表報告,料中資石油股今年首季盈利面臨挑戰、料油氣產量增長會放慢、實現氣價會回落、煉油毛利呈改善、以及產品需求有所復甦。
該行估計,中石化(00386.HK)在目前低油價的環境下股價可跑贏同業,雖料其勘探與開採成本降至每桶45美元,油價低企會對其今年勘探與開採業務帶來挑戰,但相信不會帶來急劇的負面影響,因中國煉油產品已實行「地板價」機制(原油價格跌破40美元/桶時,國內汽、柴油最高零售價格不再下調)。該行料中石化今年盈利及現金流將可跑贏內地其他同業,予「增持」評級,將目標價由5.01元升至5.22元。
摩通表示,雖然中海油原油開採成本在「三桶油」中最低,但油氣價格回落,料令中海油今年自由現金流惡化,料今年會面現金流、臨資本開支、股息分派等挑戰,該行予中海油「增持」評級,將目標價由11.66元輕微下調至11.63元。
該行指,低油價及氣價對中石油(00857.HK)影響巨大,因公司上游業務比重較大,料下遊業務可受惠內地實行「地板價」機制,但其下業務佔比有限、兼且管道資產仍存不明朗因素,予其「中性」評級,將目標價由2.97元升至3.09元。
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