《大行報告》匯豐研究下調同程藝龍(00780.HK)目標價至11元 評級「持有」
匯豐研究發表報告,同程藝龍(00780.HK)2019第四季度的收入及以通用會計準則計的營運溢利均符合該行的保守預測,但以通用會計準則計的營運溢利則較市場預測低59%,相信是因為市場競爭激烈所致。公司預期今年首季的收入按年跌42至47%,由於同業攜程亦料會錄45%至50%跌幅,相信這不會令市場感到意外。然而,管理層預計第一季將扭虧,料非通用會計準則計盈利錄5,000萬元人民幣,這主要是受惠於成本削減措施。
該行又引述管理層指,對隨後數季的復甦前景感樂觀,因為國內休閒旅遊的需求,尤其是在低線城市的初期復甦跡象已經顯現,而高線城市的防控措施則更為嚴格。雖然在SARS期間國內旅遊曾錄V型反彈,但承認SARS並不是一個很好的參考。公司2月份業務錄80%下跌,但看到3月份跌幅收窄至40至50%。
該行對公司2020及2021年的非通用會計準則盈利預測分別下調32%及7%,以反映疫情的影響,維持「持有」投資評級,目標價由原來的12.1元調低至11元。
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