安踏體育(02020.HK)：2019年高增長，2020年穩健前行，維持“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
2019年營收/業績分別同增40.7%/30.3%。2019年公司收入/歸母淨利潤同增40.7%/30.3%至339.3/53.4億元。剔除合營公司JVCO產生報表虧損6.33億元后，公司經營溢利62.6億元（+47.8%）。毛利率受直營零售收入佔比提升拉動，同增2.4PCTs至55.0%，規模效應下費用率均有所下降，經營利潤率同增1.9PCTs至25.6%。考慮合營公司虧損後淨利率水平同降1.0PCTs至16.6%。
安踏收入超預期，FILA品牌高歌猛進，迪桑特盈利。1）安踏品牌：2019年收入同增21.8%，線下渠道淨增459家至10516家。ANTA大貨升級第九代門店，ANTAKIDS門店進入4.0時代，品牌經營利潤率+0.9PCTs至26.8%。2）FILA品牌：2019年收入同增73.9%，大幅超出市場預期。門店淨增299家至1951家，Kids/Fusion零售流水分別超過20億/10億。FILA品牌經營利潤率同比增加1.9PCTs至27.2%。3）其他品牌：Descente預計2019流水約10億元，實現盈利，2019年門店數淨增加19家至136家。Kolon/Sprandi/Kingkow2019年門店數分別達185/114/41家。
2020年主業穩健，Amer短期影響可控，長期規劃清晰。主業：公司平台管理模式執行效率高，產品規劃完善，多品牌管理能力強，能夠使得集團在行業危機中表現更佳。公司在2020年1月底推行全員零售迎戰疫情，我們預計電商實現50%+增長，Q1流水下滑幅度在20%左右，下半年有望恢復正常增長。Amer業務：1）短期影響可控，2020年負面影響減小。我們估算AMER旗下品牌以冰雪運動產品為主，冬季收入佔比65%左右，受疫情影響季節並非銷售旺季。假如疫情在2020年7月得到控制，我們預計Amer集團業務收入影響可控，預計業務能夠實現小幅盈利，考慮PPA費用及利息支出後給安踏報表帶來2億左右負面影響。2）長期戰略規劃清晰，有望實現穩定增長。未來5年Amer集團“大品牌、大渠道、大國家”戰略，將培育3個10億歐元品牌，直營渠道數量拓展至1000+家，同時加快中、美等大國家市場開發。整體未來五年amer集團計劃實現收入CAGR為10%+。
投資建議：安踏集團作為全球化運營的運動鞋服龍頭公司，多品牌戰略發展迅速，Amer集團業務整合加快公司的國際化進程。我們預計公司2020-2022年歸母淨利潤至為56.7/76.0/89.1億元。當前股價為53.65港幣，對應2020/21年PE23/17倍，我們認為當下估值極具吸引力，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情持續的範圍及時間超過預期；終端需求下滑；多品牌及海外業務開展不順；人民幣匯率變動帶來業績波動。
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