申洲國際(02313.HK)：OEM業務穩健，長期競爭力凸顯，維持“買入”評級
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
收入/歸母淨利潤同增8.2%/12.2%。公司2019年收入226.65億元，同增8.2%，OEM收入同增10.1%；淨利潤50.95億元，同增12.2%，剔除零售業務虧損，OEM收入同增14.1%。毛利率小幅下降1.3PCT至30.3%，主要系①收縮零售業務，②染色原材料和人工成本上升，③用能成本增加。管理費用率下降0.08PCT至6.84%，銷售費用率下降1.71PCT至1.68%，主要系零售關店所致，2019年淨利率提升0.81PCT至22.5%。
內生效率提升&越/柬產能順利驅動產量平穩增長。（1）產能增長上，2019年OEM業務產量同增7%左右，單價提升近3%，公司整體效率提升4%左右（其中海外工廠提升約10%，國內提升約3%）。2019年海外產能順利擴張，越南成衣工廠年內投產，海外面料產能目前佔到總產能45%+。（2）分客户看，前四大客户佔比82.8%（同比提升5.3PCT），耐克/阿迪達斯/優衣庫/彪馬增速分別8.3%/26.2%/16.3%/15.9%，佔比29.9%/22.2%/19.9%/10.8%。國內客户（安踏/李寧/特步等）佔比5%左右。（3）分品類看，運動品類同增14.3%，佔比72.0%，系中國及美國市場需求上升，休閒/內衣/其他類別分別同比變動4.3%/-39.5%/-14.8%，佔比23.8%/3.5%/0.7%。（4）分地區看，國內/歐盟/日本/美國/其他地區收入同增13.2%/2.5%/9.5%/6.8%/6.0%，國內佔比提升至31.5%。
短期疫情衝擊，穩定供應鏈有望帶來2020全年收入平穩。受疫情影響，全球服飾產業鏈受到衝擊，公司海外工廠一直正常運作，國內工廠復工及時，產能所受影響較小。2020年進入公司產能釋放週期，預計產能增速超過10%。訂單層面，我們認為未來龍頭品牌商會對供應商快速反應的要求會更高，申洲國際作為龍頭其生產穩定且交期短的競爭力凸顯，訂單有望集中。我們預計2020H1公司訂單維持正常，2020H2訂單的調整能夠通過部分國內客户訂單進行彌補，全年收入預計穩中有升。
投資建議。預測FY2020~FY2022年歸母淨利潤分別為53.66/62.78/74.23億元，同增5.3%/17.0%/18.2%。公司現價73.15港幣，市值1100億港幣，對應2020/2021年PE為17/14倍。公司作為全球最大縱向一體化成衣製造商，綁定下游高景氣行業的優質大客户，短期衝擊不會影響我們對公司長期判斷，長期隨着海外產能提升以及生產效率提升，有望實現業績穩定增長。維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：新冠疫情影響時間及範圍超預期對公司業務造成不利影響；下游客户訂單波動影響公司營業收入；海外產能擴張不及預期，貿易環境變化影響盈利水平；棉價波動風險；外匯波動風險。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
