滔搏(06110.HK)：規模優勢、科技賦能、品牌效應鑄就滔搏護城河，給予“買入”評級，目標價11.96港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：11.96港元
核心觀點：（本文如無特殊説明，貨幣單位均為人民幣）
滔搏擁有全國最大的運動鞋服零售網絡。滔搏是中國最大運動鞋服零售商、耐克中國第一大經銷商、阿迪全球第一大經銷商,18年中國市佔率15.9%居第一，收入325.6億元，06-18年CAGR28.8%，其中80%+為耐克/阿迪。模式直營為主，截至19年9月25日直營店數佔比81%。
規模優勢、科技賦能、品牌效應鑄就滔搏護城河。（1）規模優勢：體現在終端門店總數第一(截至19年9月25日直營及經銷門店10329家)，優質地段獲取能力(龐大數據帶來的篩選能力)，業主分成制帶來租金優惠(19H1租金費率10.97%)，強經銷商管控(掌握庫存/銷售數據)，資金優勢及O2O庫存打通。（2）科技賦能：線下實時分析消費者行為不斷微調經營策略，線上通過高附加值會員制(如國際足球明星見面會)等強化消費者粘性。（3）品牌效應：體現在18年耐克/阿迪廣告費均過百億元，遠超其他運動品牌，並簽約了我國最受歡迎的籃球/足球頭部賽事的官方合作和頭部球隊/球員。如NBA官方合作只簽約了耐克；18屆世界盃32支球隊阿迪簽約12支，耐克簽約10支。三大護城河帶來18年滔搏存貨週轉102天，零售店均380萬元/年，均穩居業內第一。
借鑑FootLocker發展歷程。從收入增速角度，滔搏可能進入穩健增長期。借鑑FL的發展，我們認為（1）滔搏與品牌商的合作有望強化；（2）滔搏併購和電商提升空間較大；（3）FL復甦期由坪效提升主導，指引滔搏未來增長主線。
19-21年EPS為0.41/0.46/0.55元/股。預計19-21年滔搏收入355.6/389.4/457.4億元，YOY+9.2%/9.5%/17.5%；歸母淨利潤25.3/28.3/34.1億元，YOY+14.8%/12.1%/20.3%。使用DCF估值法，滔搏合理價值為11.96港元/股，首次覆蓋，給予“買入”評級。
風險提示。消費升級低於預期，疫情打擊線下消費等。
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