寶龍地產(01238.HK)：銷售繼續保持高增長，維持“買入”評級，目標價6.30港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：6.30港元
投資要點
維持“買入”評級，目標價6.30港元：我們認為未來三年將是公司的高速增長年份，體現在業績和銷售兩個方面。公司未來三年的銷售金額CAGR預計將達到35%，2021年有望衝刺千億。公司繼續保持在長三角的區域優勢，年內保持區域內拿地比例（超過8成），且保持較低的拿地成本（總土地成本3016元/平米），在手土儲充足（對應2019年面積比例超過6倍）。另外未來兩年商場開業加速，預計租管費收入將提速增長。2019年公司銷售回款強，並完成配股及商業拆分，財務狀況顯著改善。我們預計公司2020/2021年的核心淨利潤為35/45億元，同比增長31%/28%。我們維持“買入”評級，目標價6.3港元，對應2019/2020年PE為8.5/6.5倍，當前股息收益率具備較強吸引力，接近8%（2019A）。
歸母核心淨利潤增長45%：2019全年公司實現營業收入260億元人民幣（下同），同比增長33%；歸母核心淨利潤為27億元，同比增長45%。毛利率為36.4%，同比下降2.1個百分點；核心淨利率為10.3%，同比增長0.9個百分點。2019年末期派息27港仙，並派發特別股息4港仙，連同中期派息9港仙，全年每股派息40港仙，同比增長33%。全年派息總額為14.7億元，佔歸母核心淨利潤的比例為55%，全年業績略超預期。
銷售保持高增長：公司2019年全年實現銷售金額604億元，同比增長47%，公司2020年的銷售目標為750億元，同比增長24%，繼續保持以高於行業均速增長。全年可售貨值為1331億元，主要貨值將於2-3季度推出。
土儲充足，保持長三角優勢：截至2019年末，公司的總土儲達到2973萬平米，同比增長40%，可供供公司4-5年發展。土儲中超過七成位於長期戰略深耕的長三角地區。公司2019年新增41幅土地，年內首次佈局大灣區市場，新增地上計容面積為732萬平米，權益土地款為215億元，平均土地成本為5517元/平米。截至2019年末的總土地成本為3016元./平米，佔銷售均價比例不到20%，土地成本維持較低水平。
風險提示：觀經濟增長放緩、行業限制政策加嚴、流動性收緊、商品房銷售不及預期、人民幣貶值、租金收入不及預期。
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