《大行报告》大摩降国泰(00293.HK)评级至「减持」指四成燃油按每桶64美元作对冲
摩根士丹利发表报告指,将国泰航空(00293.HK)评级由「与大市同步」降至「减持」,下调对其目标价27%,由12.2元降至8.9元,指新冠病毒疫情对国泰构成干扰,带来更大不确定性,阻碍其复苏。
该行指,国泰航空(00293.HK)去年纯利跌28%至16.91亿元,意味去年下半年纯利按年大跌87%至3.44亿元,去年下半年纯利受累於香港空运大幅倒退。
大摩引述国泰管理层称,上市公司在今年3至4月拟削减65%运力,同期承载率跌50%及收益率下滑。中国内地航线90%运力暂停,由於网络效应将带来更大影响。国泰在40%燃油在每桶64美元价格进行对冲,倘油价持续疲弱,对冲损失将带来潜在下行压力。
该行削减对国泰估算,指以疫情在4至5月进入高峰,随後在第三季缓和为假设,并在估算潜在燃油对冲损失计入对今年国际油价最新预测,大摩料国泰今年将录107亿元亏损,意味股本回报率录负16%。大摩料其净杠杆在今年底将扩大至180%,高於去年底止的123%。该行料国泰2021年扭亏转盈,录纯利14.24亿元,料2022年纯利17.32亿元。
大摩指,国泰现估值相当於今年预测市帐率0.7倍,较1999年起历史均值低出1.2个标准差,但仍高於1999年起0.6倍的历史低位。大摩评估倘目前情况延长一个月,将对国泰去年底止帐面价值带来额外4%的负面影响。
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