野村:降洛鉬(3993.HK)目標價至3.3港元 無鈷電池未必是威脅
野村發表研究報告指,特斯拉的無鈷電池對洛陽鉬業(3993.HK)未必是威脅,反而是公司的收購動作抑制了其估值。該行將公司H股目標價進一步下調3.3港元,維持“中性”評級,以反映其2020年股本回報率降低。
該行指,根據公司的最新指引,上調了2020年金屬產量的估計,並預計今年的收入將按年增長33%,但該行預計公司的淨資產收益率將僅恢復6%,低於其長期平均的8.8%。
該行指,特斯拉是否將使用無鈷電池暫時尚不清楚,但即使特斯拉從電池中完全去除了鈷,估計這隻會減少2000噸鈷的消耗,只佔該行今年全球鈷需求預測的1.5%。該行續指,維持鈷的供需預測不變,仍然預計今年全球鈷供應增長將超過需求增長,鈷的平均價格將按年持平,預計在今年為每磅16.2美元。
該行認為,公司收購世界第三大金屬交易公司IXM可能會給公司財務帶來壓力,因為IXM的交易業務將打壓公司的整體毛利率,以及IXM的高短期債務將令公司的資產負債表受壓。

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