玖龍紙業(02689.HK)：1H20勝預期，2H關税或帶來逾3億利潤彈性
機構：興業證券
投資要點
公司1H20勝預期，負債率下降，盈利能力提升。玖龍紙業1H20分別錄得銷售額/毛利潤/歸母淨利潤288.36億元/49.18億元/22.79億元，同比-5%+3.4%/+0.5%,環比+18.9%/+31%/41.4%，勝市場預期。受益於廢紙原材料價格大幅下降，公司期內毛利率按升1.4pct至17.1%。受公司新增紙機及人工影響，公司期內行政費用率按年增0.5pct，但受益於其積極優化財務槓桿，淨借貸同比下降34億，環比下降28億，期內財務費用率同比下降0.4pct。公司派發股息人民幣10分，派息率達20.4%?銷量按年增長13.3%，噸利小幅下降。公司期內整體銷量按年增13.3%至8.54百萬噸。其中，卡紙、高強瓦楞紙及塗布灰底白板紙分別按年+9.1%、+20%及+24.6%。但從噸利看，由於紙價有所下降，公司噸利小幅下降。但受益於原材料價格的下降，公司期內除瓦楞紙毛利率按年有所下降外，卡紙/瓦楞紙/文化紙毛利率分別+2pct/+5.5pct/+12pct，符合行業走勢。
新產能穩步推進，週轉率優化，龍頭優勢凸顯。公司期內繼續積極展開全球佈局，增加馬來西亞48萬噸的再生漿產能。此外，公司繼續橫向開拓低價產品，攝取小廠份額，縱向收購下游包裝廠，增強龍頭地位。公司期內在瀋陽及泉州新增造紙產能95萬噸。公司計劃於20Q1新增110萬噸包裝紙產能，並在2021年底前增加於馬來西亞增加55萬噸產能。公司期內週轉亦進一步改善，在行業低點時期，公司龍頭優勢進一步凸顯，拉大與小廠差距。?我們的觀點:受原材料成本下降及財務成本下降推動，公司1H20盈利能力提升，勝市場預期。短期來看，受原材料緊缺影響，成品紙提價動力大，有望帶動市場情緒：由於廢紙原料分散，人員復工較慢，近期廢紙供應恢復遲滯，進入被動去庫存階段，價格有上升動力。包裝紙方面，全國生產開機率不足5成，紙價頻頻上升，玖龍開工率相對較高，近期銷量仍有望達到歷史正常銷量的8成左右。中期看，美廢清除關税、再生漿退税等政策有望為公司帶來逾3億利潤彈性：公司2H20受益於美廢免税（2.8億），再生漿退税及免税（1.6億），關税政策有望為公司帶來逾3億的税後利潤彈性。
我們認為
1、制約板塊情緒及業績的貿易戰因素正逐步改善，隨着下游復工，成品紙需求或出現階段性、修復性的增長，2、固廢進口縮緊對成本端及紙價的支撐，3、19年產業鏈持續去庫存、小廠出清後行業的結構性改善；造紙龍頭有望迎來穩重有升的行情。此外，玖龍及於2月17日被列入恆生中國高股息率指數，並以4.03%的比重位列指數比重之首，我們認為隨着公司大型Capex完成，負債率下降，其派息有望維持可觀水平，建議投資者關注。
風險提示：1、宏觀經濟及貿易政策波動；2、成本壓力增大；3、競爭加劇
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
